摘要：改革开放以来，我国经济得到快速发展，社会现代化及工业化水平不断提高。在其不断的发展过程中，我国城市空气也受到了不同程度的污染。就目前来看，我国城市空气质量不容乐观，环境污染也在加重,严重危害人民身体健康。江苏省地处江南，空气污染虽然没有北方严重，但也存在空气污染问题。本论文从江苏省城市空气污染现状入手分析，选择了可吸入颗粒物（PM10），二氧化硫（SO2），二氧化氮（NO2），人口数量，地区生产总值，民用汽车保有量，房屋施工面积，煤炭消费量，原油消费量等指标作为自变量，以空气质量达标率（按AQI指数计算）为因变量，进行分析，找出空气污染的组成因子，并提出城市大气污染综合防治对策，为江苏省城市空气污染问题的解决提供理论参考。

本文先对自变量指标进行主成分分析，结合分析结果，选择了前两个主成分。第一主成分主要是由二氧化硫（SO2），人口数量，地区生产总值，民用汽车保有量，煤炭消费量，原油消费量组成的综合指标，称之为社会因子。第二主成分主要是由可吸入颗粒物（PM10），二氧化氮（NO2），房屋施工面积组成的综合指标，称之为物理因子。再用这两个主成分作为自变量，空气质量达标率作为因变量进行主成分回归，建立主成分回归方程，然后把原始指标代入，得到原始指标表示的回归方程，并进行分析研究。

对模型分析得到，可吸入颗粒物（PM10）的浓度，二氧化硫（SO2）的浓度，二氧化氮（NO2）的浓度，房屋施工面积对空气质量达标率的影响显著。在其他条件不变的情况下，若提高空气质量达标率一个百分点，需要降低二氧化硫（SO2）浓度0.27微克/立方米、降低可吸入颗粒物（PM10）浓度0.53微克/立方米、降

低二氧化氮（NO2）浓度0.54微克/立方米，减少煤炭消费量0.41万吨。

关键词：空气质量达标率（按AQI指数计算）；主成分分析；主成分回归；

Abstract：Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been rapid development, and the level of social modernization and industrialization has steadily improved. In its continuous development process, China's urban air has also been polluted in different degrees. For now, China's urban air quality is not optimistic, environmental pollution is also increasing, which is seriously endangering people’s health. Jiangsu lies in the south of Chang Jiang river. Although air pollution is not serious than the north of China, but there are air pollution problems. In this paper, the paper analyzes the current situation of urban air pollution in Jiangsu Province, and selects PM10, SO2, NO2, population, regional car ownership, housing construction area, Coal consumption, crude oil consumption and other indicators as independent variables and air quality compliance rate (according to AQI index) as the dependent variable, to analyze the air pollution countermeasures, and provide a theoretical reference of urban air pollution countermeasures for Jiangsu to solving the problem of urban air pollution.

In this paper, the principal component analysis of the independent variable index is used, and the first two principal components are selected according to the analysis results. The first principal component is mainly a comprehensive index of sulfur dioxide (SO2), population, regional GDP, civil car ownership, coal consumption, and crude oil consumption, called social factors. The second main component is mainly composed of respirable particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), housing construction area of comprehensive indicators, called physical factors. The two principal components used as independent variables, air quality compliance rate as the dependent variable, principal component regression equation is established, and then through putting into the original indexes, their regression equation is obtained, analyze and research. 江苏省城市空气污染指数影响因素分析:http://www.youerw.com/guanli/lunwen_204232.html