基于期望值参考点的多准则决策方法

摘要行为科学理论在管理学研究领域得到广泛重视，单一准则的期望效用理论出现危机。期望效用理论假定决策者的理性人，但实际上，由于决策问题本身具有的模糊性、个体认知的局限性以及知识的匮乏，人并不是完全的理性人。因此考虑决策者行为因素前景理论越来越成为研究的热点。

参考点是前景理论的核心问题。本文比较了正负理想点参考点、零点参考点、期望值参考点和组合参考点的优点和缺点，基于多准则群决策问题提出了期望值参考点设计方法。将各个决策者作为自然状态，以方案在各个准则下综合前景值最大为目标，建立了期望值参考点设计的优化模型，讨论了解的约束条件和求解算法，并给出了具体的步骤。最后通过案例说明了方法的可行性和有效性。43648

本文的主要贡献体现在：

1、系统地分析了现有参考点的优缺点，为构建期望值参考点提供了理论基础；

2、在系统分析了现有参考点的基础上，提出了期望值参考点的设计方案。

毕业论文主关键词多准则群决策前景理论期望值参考点

毕业论文外文摘要

Title Multiple attribute decision making considering aspiration-levels

Abstract

Behavioral science theory has received extensive attention in managerial practices, and the theory of the expected utility of a single standard is in crisis. Expected utility theory assumes that the decision maker is rational person, but in fact, because of the fuzziness of the decision making problem, the limitation of inpidual cognition and the lack of knowledge, the person is not completely rational. Therefore, the prospect theory of behavioral factors is becoming a hot research topic.

The reference point is the crucial issue in prospect theory. The paper compares the advantage and disadvantage of the positive and negative ideal point reference point, zero point reference point, the expectation value reference point and combination reference point, then a new method of expectation value reference point is proposed based on multi-criteria group decision-making problem. The decision-maker is depicted as natural condition, and the optimal model of expectation value reference point is designed with the maximal comprehensive prospect value of each alternative under inpidual criteria, the constraint condition and solution algorithm are discussed, and the specific steps are also given. Finally, numerical example illustrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

The main contribution of this paper is embodied in:

1. The advantages and disadvantages of the existing reference points are systematically analyzed, which provides a theoretical basis for the construction of the expected value reference point.

2. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the existing reference point, the design scheme of the expected value reference point is put forward.

Keywords Multi-criteria group decision-making prospect theory Expectation value reference point

1 引言 1

1．1 研究背景和意义 1

1．2 文献回顾 1

1．3 技术路线 2

2 前景理论概述 4

2．1 前景理论的基本思想 4

2．2 价值函数 5

2．3 概率权重 5

3 参考点的比较 1

3．1 现有参考点简介基于期望值参考点的多准则决策方法:http://www.youerw.com/guanli/lunwen_44578.html