摘要由于经济的高速发展，使得群众的生活水平和物质能力得到了显著地提高，这也使得房地产行业的发展得以有序进行，政府对于房地产行业的进步也给予了非常高的重视。而房地产市场中的商品住宅价格也从一个侧面体现出了一个城市的经济实力和人民的消费水平，对于商品住宅价格的预测研究是很有必要的。因此，本文对徐州市2014年的商品住宅价格进行了预测，与实际房地产市场价格进行了对比。同时还对徐州市历年的商品住宅价格的合理性进行了评价。39527
文章结合各地区住宅价格预测的实例，论述了徐州市商品住宅价格预测的基本原理、方法，并通过建立标准差模型对徐州市商品住宅价格的合理性进行了评价。本文从影响商品住宅价格的因素着手研究，选择主要因子构建徐州市商品住宅价格预测的多元回归模型,对徐州市2014年的商品住宅价格进行了预测和检验。
文章根据徐州市2007年-2014年的徐州市统计年鉴数据，利用SPSS软件，采用逐步回归分析的方法，对该地区的住宅价格进行了模拟预测。在采用趋势分析法下，得出的公式为：
  代入已有数据，用该方程预测出的2014年的徐州市商品住宅平均价格为8788元。
在逐步回归分析下的预测结果如下，线性回归方程为：                                         
 代入已有数据，可以得出方程的结果7921.72元就是2014年徐州市商品住宅平均价格。取两模型结果的平均数8354.86元作为2014年徐州市商品住宅平均价格的最终预测值。
最后通过建立标准差模型对徐州市商品住宅价格的合理性进行了分析和评价，发现Z1即2007年到2013年徐州市房价收入比均不在合理区间内； 只有2010年和2011年徐州市的房价成本比处于合理区间内。所以，综合来看2007年到2013年徐州市住宅房价均不合理。
毕业论文关键词：住宅价格，回归分析，SPSS,房价成本比，房价收入比
Abstract
  Due to rapid economic development, making the living standards of the masses and physical capacity has been significantly improved, which also makes the development of the real estate industry to orderly government for the real estate industry's progress has also been given a very high importance. The real estate market in the price of commercial housing from one side reflects the level of consumption of a city's economic strength and the people's prediction for commodity housing prices is necessary. Therefore, Xuzhou City in 2014 commercial housing prices were predicted, and the actual real estate market prices were compared. Also on the calendar Xuzhou reasonable commercial housing prices were evaluated.
  Combined with the regional housing price forecasts instance, discusses the basic principles of commercial housing price forecast Xuzhou City, methods, and through the establishment of standard deviation model was evaluated for reasonableness Xuzhou price of commodity houses. From the factors affecting commodity housing prices started studying, choose the main factor to build commercial housing price forecast Xuzhou multiple regression model, Xuzhou 2014 commercial housing prices were predicted and testing.
  Articles based in Xuzhou City in 2007 --2014 year Xuzhou Statistical Yearbook data, using SPSS software, using stepwise regression analysis, the region's housing prices were simulated to predict. In the case of trend analysis, the resulting formula is：
          
  Into the existing data, using the equation predicted 2014 Xuzhou commercial housing price 8788 yuan. 徐州市住宅价格预测及合理性评价:http://www.youerw.com/jingji/lunwen_39854.html