浅议汇率变动对价格的传导机制
时间:2018-09-13 14:35 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 摘要受全球经济影响，目前我国的物价持续上涨，根据十二届全国人大三次会议中报告，2015年中国预测平均CPI增长达到3%左右，虽然2014年12月份的CPI增长为近四年内的历史最低数据为1.5%，但是2014年全年人民币实际有效汇率升值达到6.24%。通过对我国的经济结构进行分析不难发现我国的对外贸易占据超过了国内生产总值的半数还多。因此，面对人民币持续升值，物价持续上涨的现状，我们难免会觉得人民币必然会一直升值，央行是不是会通过推行人民币升值来遏制物价持续稳定上涨的趋势。国家会不会放任人民币升值来抑制通货膨胀。本文就该现象进行了浅析。从理论上对汇率变动对价格的传导机制进行分析并且根据对人民币名义有效汇率对我国物价的传递途径的研究，得出结论：人民币的升值确实能够起到遏制通货膨胀，并且降低国家的物价，但是效果并不明显，作用力有限。人民币对三大价格指数的传递率参差不一，相差较大。汇率传递价格的直接传递显著，间接传递不显著。 然后对全文中所提到的所有研究和分析进行总结，并使用实证分析--针对人民币汇率对国内物价的影响数据构建模型对结论进行检验，并在实证分析的所得结果的基础上提出了文持人民币汇率稳定、改革结售汇制度、调整出口产业结构、参考分类价格指数分类调整价格的政策建议。28213 毕业论文关键词 汇率变动 传递机制 物价 结售汇制度 Title Research on the mechanism of Exchange rate pass-through Abstract Because of the global economic impact, prices continued to rise in China now,according to the report of the 12 session of the national people's Congress meeting in 2015 forecast average CPI increase of around 3% in China, through the CPI growthing in December 2014 is the lowest in almost four years,it is 1.5%, but throughout 2014 real effective exchange rate appreciation of the Yuan reached 6.24%.From analysising the Chinese economic structure,we has found that chinese foreign trade accound.Because the Yuan appreciation and the price coutinued to rise.We think the RMB will always appreciate,Central banks will use the RMB appreciation to curb the trend of rising prices remained stable.States would use the RMB appreciation to curb inflation.In this paper, analysis this phenomenon.From analysising the exchange rate pass-through and studying on the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB on Chinese price transmission. We conclude that appreciation of the RMB will be able to curb inflation and reduce the country's prices, but the effect is not obvious, action was limited.Price transmission path of RMB exchange rate pass-through is clear,hoever,money supply transmission path and total supply-aggregate demand transmissiom path is obstructed. Then summarize all research and analysis of the full text, and use the empirical analysis - build a model for the RMB exchange rate on domestic prices affect the data to test the conclusions.On the basis of the results of the empirical analysis presented policy recommendations to maintain the RMB exchange rate stability, the reform of foreign exchange settlement system, the export of industrial structure adjustment,adjust price referencing price index classification classification. Keywords exchange rates，Exchange rate pass-through，Prices, The system of exchange settlement and sales 毕业论文外文摘要 目 次 1 引言 1 (责任编辑：qin) |