Logistic模型我国房地产企业信贷风险的影响因素探究
时间:2018-10-22 21:47 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 摘要：一直以来，我国房地产行业在国民经济中具有不可取代的重要地位，并且是支撑国内经济快速发展和人民安居稳定的基石。在经历全球金融危机的重创后，国内经济发展方式不断转变，已从高增长转变为稳中求进的发展模式，然而房地产行业却始终处于过热的发展势头。根据中国人民银行发布的2016数据，房地产信贷占各项贷款的四分之一。因此，加强商业银行对房地产企业的信贷管理势在必行，将能够极大的减少信贷风险产生的不良后果。本文将以国内房地产企业为研究对象，选取近几年其财务数据指标作为信贷风险的研究分析。借鉴国外成熟理论Logistic模型，进行房地产企业的各个项目信贷风险违约的预测和判断，减少银行对房地产企业信贷的不良贷款情况。29481 毕业论文关键词：房地产信贷风险；Logistic模型；信贷风险研究 Research the influencing factors of Chinese Credit Risk of Real Estates——Based on Logistic Model Abstract:All the time,our domestic real estate industry has played an irreplaceable role in our national economy, which is also the cornerstone to support the fast development of our inner economy and Chinese’ settled life. After the global financial crisis, domestic economic developing method has been changing constantly, which has been transferred from high growth pattern to steady development pattern, but the real estate industry has always been in a trend of overheating development. According to the 2016 data released by the people's Bank of China, real estate loans have occupied for more than 1/4 of total loans. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen the credit management of commercial banks to real estate enterprises, which will reduce the negative consequences caused by credit risks greatly. In this paper, the domestic real estate enterprises will be used as studying objects and their financial data in recent years will be selected to analyze the credit risks. What’s more, learn from the Logistic model, a foreign mature theory, the credit risks in various projects of these real estate enterprises will be predicted and judged so as to reduce banks' bad loans to real estate enterprises. Key words: Credit Risk of Real Estates；Logistic Model；Credit Risk Research； 目 录 摘要1 关键词1 Abstract1 Key words1 一、引言（或绪论）1二、文献综述2 三、国内商业银行房地产信贷现状及问题3 （一）国内房地产信贷的现状分析3（二）国内房地产信贷的问题探究4 1．国家货币政策持续变动的隐患 4 2．房地产行业获取资金单一的来源模式4 3．商业银行内部控制水平不足5 四、基于Logistic模型信贷风险的实证研究5 （一）研究对象与样本的选取5 1．研究对象的选择5 2．样本的选择5 （二）财务指标的选取与调整5 （三）主成分与因子分析6 1．数据的相关性分析6 2．KMO和巴特利特检验7 3．主成分提取7 4．确定因子载荷矩阵8 （四）Logistic模型的建立与检验10 1．获取主成分表达式及数值10 2．因变量的假设和解释10 3．Logistic模型的检验11 （五）模型结论11 五、结论与建议12 （一）本文结论12 （二）研究建议13 致谢14参考文献14 我国房地产企业信贷风险的影响因素探究 基于Logistic模型 一、引言 我国房地产行业起步较晚但发展势头迅猛，每年有大量的资金流入房地产市场当中。而从2009年房地产调控政策的开始，商业银行成为了房地产行业不可或缺的一部分，因为商业银行信贷逐渐成为了我国房地产市场最主要的金融工具之一，它为房地产行业提供了巨大的资金流。但是，随着房地产市场的不断扩大，商业银行信贷的规模也越来越庞大。在巨大的利润面前，风险必然与利益对等，房地产行业的信贷风险正在悄然攀升，房地产行业的未来发展道路将变得十分危险，这必将对商业银行的信贷造成不小的冲击。 (责任编辑：qin) |