股票市场高估值对并购绩效影响的实证分析
时间:2019-12-07 10:48 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 摘要自从 1993年发生第一起上市公司并购事件——深圳宝安收购上海延中以来， 上市公司间挂起了一阵并购风，并且形式越来越多样化、涉及金额也越来越多。特别是2015 年，在国家相关政策的帮助下，我国并购市场的活跃度突破了之前的最大值。2009 年股权改革之后，国内股票市场一直不稳定，本文将重点放在研究市场估值程度对上市企业并购绩效的影响。本文在参阅大量国内外相关文献的基础上,对股票市场驱动并购理论进行梳理并提出本文研究假设；以深沪两市2012——2014 年上市公司发生的并购事件为研究样本，用沪深市场平均每月 PE值来衡量股票市场估值水平，用财务数据度量并购绩效，实证分析两者的关系。通过实证分析得到的结论：根据理论分析与多元回归检验研究，市场高估期确是会有更多并购交易发生。而且，市场高估期发生的并购所得的绩效较差，低谷时期发生的并购绩效较好。最后结合结论对上市公司并购决策提出建议。42403 毕业论文关键词 股票市场估值水平 并购 绩效 Title Empirical Research on the Impact of High-valuation StockMarket on the Performance of M&A Abstract As the first merge-Shenzhen Baoan company purchased Shanghai Yanzhong, took place in1993, merge and acquisition has become a trend with more various forms and larger scale.Especially in 2015, under the influence of national policies, vitality of Chinese enterprises grewto a record after 2014.The thesis pays attention to the impact of stock market valuation on theperformance of M&A.The thesis uses document research and analysis of theories combined with empirical test. Firstthe article cites a large number of relevant research literatures at home and abroad. Secondly onthe basis of studies Security Market Drive Acquisition Theory, the paper analyzes the stockmarket valuation of the mechanism of the M&A performance and makes assumption for theresearch. Then empirical part depends on the listed companies from Shanghai and ShenzhenStock Exchange M&A events between 2012 and 2014 as the study sample, and studies therelationship between the stock market valuation and the performance of M&A through anempirical test. The stock market valuation is measured by average PE monthly, and theperformance of M&A is calculated by financial data.Through analysis getting the following conclusion: According to Security Market DriveAcquisition Theory and study, in the over-valuation period, more M&A events take place. Andthe performance are worse when M&A events took place in the over-valuation period.On thebasis of the conclusion, the author will put forward suggestions for listed companies. Keywords Stock Market Valuation M&A the Performance of M&A 目次 1引言1 1．1研究背景与研究意义.1 1.2研究方法与研究思路...1 2文献综述...3 2.1国外文献综述...3 2.2国内文献综述...3 2.3文献评述5 3研究设计...6 3.1研究假设..6 3.2数据来源与样本选择.6 3.3变量的测量7 3.4回归模型的建立...8 4实证分析.10 4.1股票市场估值水平的划分...10 4.2样本的描述性统计.11 4.3.变量的描述性统计.11 4.4多元回归分析.12 4.5实证结论..13 结论15 致谢16 参考文献.17
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