广东经济增长对就业弹性的拉动作用
时间:2020-02-29 09:47 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 摘要广东省经济水平在我国一直名列前茅，至今也保持了较快的增长速度，经济增长和充分就业是宏观经济政策的其中两大目标，广东作为经济发达省份，自然会有大批外来工涌入谋求就业，而此时失业也就成为观众焦点。一般的经济规律是，经济增长的情况下，就业人数也会随之增加。那么在广东省阶段性的就业弹性的下降甚至为零的原因是什么？学生利用1978-2013的有关数据对广东的经济增长与就业弹性、就业增长率的关系进行实证分析。主要包括描述分析和计量模型，对广东经济增长与就业关系先进行了相关关系检验，再分析了可能影响就业人数变化的经济变量，研究发现，广东就业率与经济增长变化趋势是基本一致的，但是就业弹性近年来有所下降，本文通过一些时事，探究经济发展的同时提高就业弹性的办法，并为此调整思路。文章主要包括了五大部分。前言简述了理论和文献综述，梳理国内外学术和研究的经验。第二部分是陈述广东现在的经济以及就业的发展状况，用数据展示了78年来经济增长与就业增长的走向变化，第三部分利用EVIEWS软件回归第三产业GDP和固定资产投资对就业人数的影响，第四部分对实验结果进行描述判断，最后第五部分对分析总结并提出政策意见。45667 毕业论文关键词：经济增长； 就业弹性； 良性互动 Abstract For a long time,the economics of Guangdong has kept the best economic level，it has also maintained a rapid growth rate.The growth rate of economic and full employment are the two main goals of macroeconomic policy.As a developed province,Guangdong has a large foreign population from other province,to look for jobs,so employment issues will be more subject of attention.Generally,employment rates will be driven by the rising economic growth.So what is the reason for Guangdong staged employment elasticity fell,even to zero.I will use the relevant data of 1978-2013 search for the relationship between economic growth and employment elasticity in Guangdong with an empirical analysis,Guangdong economic growth and employment to conduct a correlation test.Re-analysis of the likely impact of changes in employment in economic variables,including descriptive analysis and econometric models.The study found that the Guangdong economic trends and employment growth are basically the same.But employment elasticity has declined in recent years.In this paper, I will use some of the current events,explore the better policy for economic growth to have positive interaction with employment rates and to this end to adjust their politic thinking.The article includes five parts,preface outlines the theory and literature review.The second part is a statement of the current development situation of Guangdong economic and employment.The third part has used EVIEWS return affect the tertiary industry GDP and fixed asset investment in employment.Section IV describes the experimental results to determine the final summary of the fifth part of the analysis and policy advice. Key words： economic growth；emplyment; positive interaction 目 录 摘 要Ⅰ AbstractⅡ 一、引言1 ㈠国外理论研究 1 ㈠国内理论研究 2 二、广东省经济与就业发展现状4 ㈠2013年广东地区生产总值的现状 4 ㈡2013年广东就业情况4 ㈢ GDP增长率与就业率分析4 三、经济增长与就业增长计量检验6 ㈠GDP与就业协整检验 6 四、回归模型及检验的原因分析8 ㈠变量说明8 ㈡实证分析9 ㈢原因分析9 五、经济增长与就业弹性协调建议10㈠创新发展城乡经济 10 ㈡经济指标与引导就业 10 ㈢大力扶持创业11 参考文献12 致 谢13 一、引言 (责任编辑：qin) |