摘要：我国高速铁路的大规模建设促进了经济繁荣和社会进步，但同时也带来了高铁运营的安全风险问题，使得运营安全管理成为高速铁路发展中至关重要的一环。本论文以我国高速铁路运营系统安全问题为研究对象，应用系统安全风险理论和方法，针对安全风险管理中最为重要的系统安全风险辨识、安全风险评价和安全风险控制展开研究，旨在为高速铁路发展提供更好的安全支撑。

鉴于此，本论文主要做了如下工作:72169

一是基于安全风险理论，系统研究了高速铁路运营安全风险的构成和成因，并从人、设备、环境、管理四个维度对高铁运营安全风险及其影响因素进行了系统辨识与分析，并据此构建了运营安全风险指标体系，为进一步的安全评价研究奠定了基础;

二是在所构建的指标体系基础上，基于模糊综合评价方法构建了高速铁路安全运营的风险评价模型。该模型采用层次分析法构建评价模型的权重，克服了传统方法的主观性缺陷，在此基础上，又进一步采用人工神经网络技术，通过机器学习进行指标权重的调整和设定，使其更加客观公正，具有一定的创新意义;

最后对我国高速铁路运营安全管理模式及方法提出了措施建议。

本论文的研究成果对于高速铁路的风险评价和管理具有较好的参考价值，对提高运营系统安全性，实现我国高速铁路可持续科学发展等具有一定的理论和现实意义。

毕业论文关键词：高速铁路；危险源辨识；模糊综合评价；人工神经网络；管理措施；

Study on Risk Identification and Evaluation of High - speed Railway Safety Operation in China

Abstract：The large-scale construction of high-speed railway in China has promoted economic prosperity and social progress, but also brought the safety risk of high-speed rail operation, which made operation safety management become a vital part of high-speed railway development。 In this paper, the security problem of high-speed railway operation system in China is taken as the research object, and the system security risk theory and method are used to study the most important security risk identification, safety risk assessment and safety risk control in safety risk management。 Development to provide better security support。

In view of this, this paper has done the following work:

Based on the theory of safety risk, this paper systematically studies the composition and causes of safety risk of high-speed railway operation, and systematically identifies and analyzes the safety risk and its influencing factors of high-speed rail operation from four dimensions: human, equipment, environment and management。 This paper constructs the operational safety risk index system, which lays the foundation for further safety evaluation research。

On the basis of the constructed index system, the risk evaluation model of high-speed railway safety operation is constructed based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method。 The model uses the analytic hierarchy process to construct the weight of the evaluation model and overcomes the subjective defects of the traditional method。 On this basis, the artificial neural network technology is used to adjust and set the index weight by machine learning to make it more objective Fair and has some innovative significance;

Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the safety management mode and method of high speed railway operation in our country。

The research results of this paper have a good reference value for the risk evaluation and management of high-speed railway, which has certain theoretical and practical significance to improve the safety of operation system and realize the sustainable scientific development of high-speed railway in China。