摘要：根据生态承载力研究理论，从自然资源指标、人口状况指标、生活质量指标、环境污染指标、经济发展指标这5个方面遴选16个评价指标，构建了生态承载力评价体系，弥补了以往对洪泽研究中对于人类经济活动所考虑的不足之处，以实现科学的严谨性。用层次分析法确定了洪泽湖区生态承载力评价体系指标权重值，采用矩阵纵横轴对比的方式使得权重系数更为客观准确，从而保证了研究结果的可信性。结果表明：洪泽湖区生态承载力综合指数大多处于“中等”状态的位置，而引起生态承载力变化的最直接驱动力是社会经济活动，经济发展指标在其中起到重要作用。江苏境内洪泽湖区两市六县区应该加快转变经济发展方式，树立以人为本的城市治理理念，合理开发洪泽湖周边区域城市面积，提高已经建成的区域的人口密度，当地政府及民众在发展洪泽湖区旅游及第三产业的同时，要保证财政倾斜，合理建设基础设施，保障和改善民生，利用自身地理位置优势，加大第三产业在地区国民生产总值中所占比重，以洪泽湖区为中心带动周边其他地区的相关产业的经济增长，最终实现一种共同繁荣。80057

毕业论文关键词：生态承载力，评价体系与模型，层次分析法，洪泽湖区

Abstract：According to the theory of ecological carrying capacity research, from the natural resources, population, the quality of life index, environmental pollution index and economic development index selected 16 evaluation index, this five aspects to build the evaluation system of ecological carrying capacity in the research on pision to make up for past for considering the shortcomings of human economic activities, in order to realize the scientific 。 Hongze Lake area are determined by using analytic hierarchy process evaluation system of ecological carrying capacity index weight values, with the method of comparison matrix vertical and horizontal shaft makes the weight coefficient is more objective and accurate, thus ensuring the reliability of the results。 Results show that the comprehensive index of Hongze Lake area of ecological carrying capacity is mostly in the position of the moderate state, and the most direct driving force of the change of the ecological carrying capacity is the social economic activities; Economic development indicators play an important role in it。 Hongze Lake area has two city six counties should speed up the transformation of the pattern of economic development, establish human-oriented city management idea, the reasonable development of Hongze Lake city area of surrounding area, increase of regional population density has been built, the local government and the public in the development of Hongze Lake area of tourism and third industry at the same time, to ensure the financial tilt, reasonable construction of infrastructure, ensuring and improving people's livelihood, using its location advantage, strengthen the third industry in regional GDP accounted for, in Hongze Lake area as the center to drive around in other parts of the related industrial economic growth, finally realizes a kind of common prosperity。

Keywords：The ecological carrying capacity, evaluation system and model, analytic hierarchy process , the Hongze Lake area

目   录

1 引言 1

2 研究区概况 1

3 研究方法与数据来源 2

3。1 评价指标体系 2

3。2 研究方法与数据处理 2

3。3 计算过程 3

4 结果分析与相关建议 3