摘  要有着 “中国鞋都”等称号的温州作为中国民营企业的领跑者自改革开放以来，其制造业一直处于蓬勃发展的状态。其中制鞋产业作为温州一直以来的优势产业在过去一段时间有着较明显的比较优势，但是近几年随着生产成本和贸易成本的提升，传统比较优势逐渐丧失，更甚是有向比较劣势的趋势发展。出口竞争力受到严峻挑战，使得大量本地制鞋企业倒闭或迁移。而制鞋产业过去作为一项优势产业在温州经过长期发展后形成集群，一旦某一环节大面积转移，各环节便都将受到影响，最终有可能导致部分或整个产业集群的外迁转移，而温州本土的制鞋集群便呈现萎缩。

本文通过对当下温州制鞋产业集群和产业价值链主要环节现状的阐述，再结合对近十六年温州制鞋行业出口数据的实证分析，通过构建马尔可夫转移矩阵对产业比较优势的动态演化进行计算分析，总结得出制鞋产业近年来出口竞争力的走向和趋势，并进一步分析趋势结果的内在成因，最终以一个比较优势动态演化的视角对制鞋产业出口竞争力的重构提出合理的建议。88598

毕业论文关键字：产业空洞化；出口竞争力；显示性比较优势；产业集群；马尔可夫转移矩阵/马尔可夫链 

Abstract Wenzhou, as the leader of China's private enterprises since the reform and opening up, its manufacturing industry has been in a booming state。 The footwear industry has become the obvious comparative advantage in Wenzhou industry for some time。 However, in recent years, with the increase of production cost and trade cost, the traditional comparative advantage is gradually lost。It even trends to disadvantage of comparative。 Export competitiveness has been severely challenged, making a large number of local shoe business collapse or migration。 The shoe industry in the past as a dominant industry in Wenzhou after a long period of development has its complete production chain, forming a huge industrial clusters。 Once a large part of the industrial chain link transfer, the links will be affected, and ultimately may lead to part or the entire industrial cluster relocation。 As a result, the original industry of Wenzhou, there will be a empty phenomenon of Industrial clusters。

Based on the present analysis of the present situation of Wenzhou shoe industry cluster and industrial value chain, this paper combines the empirical analysis of export data of Wenzhou shoe industry in the past 16 years, and constructs the dynamic evolution of industrial comparative advantage by constructing Markov transfer matrix to analyzes the trend of advantage of comparative。 Then, summed up the trend of export competitiveness, and further analyzes the inherent causes of the trend results。 Finally, this paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions on the reconstruction of shoe export competitiveness in the perspective of the evolution of comparative advantage。

Key Words：Industry hollowing；Export competitiveness；Revealed Comparative Advantage；Industrial clusters；Markov transmission matrix/ Markov chain；

目录

摘  要 2

Abstract 3

1。绪论 5

2。文献综述 6

 2。1产业集群与出口竞争力相关研究 6

    2。1。1产业集群的影响及萎缩的特点 6

    2。1。2出口竞争力与产业集群的关系 7

    2。2比较优势演化相关研究 7

3。温州制鞋产业现状分析