摘要本文首先对弗里德曼的通货膨胀理论做了概述。分别阐述了费雪方程式,弗里德曼的货币传导机制,货币供应量和价格之间的长期、短期关系。随后选择了费雪方程式MV=PY模型对影响中国消费价格的的因素进行了统计分析和计量分析。得出结论:影响通货膨胀的因素来自货币供应量。弗里德曼的货币通货膨胀理论在中国近期的检验是成功的,也存在局限性。可以看出:中国的货币是非中性的,货币供应量在长期中,对价格产生影响,也对实际产量产生影响;应当注意到物价上升的动因具有复杂性。货币供应量对价格的影响有滞后性。5754
关键词 价格 PY=MV模型 货币供应量 弗里德曼 通货膨胀
毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要
Title The test of Friedman's theory of inflation in China In recent years
Abstract
In this article, first of all, the Friedman's theory of inflation will be outline. Set out respectively the Fisher equation, Friedman's monetary transmission mechanism,the long-term and short-term relationships between the money supply and the price level. Then I select the Fisher equation MV=PY model to make statistical analysis and econometric analysis on the influence factors of China's consumer prices. Come to a conclusion: factors affecting inflation did come from the money supply. The test of Friedman's monetary theory of inflation in China recently, is successful, but also have limits. It can be seen: the Chinese currency is non-neutral, the money supply in the long term, have an impact on price level, also have an impact on real output. It should be noted that the complexity with the reasons of rising prices. Effects of money supply on price level have lagged.
Keywords price PY=MV model M2 Friedman inflation
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