Predictions in regression analysis below, the linear regression equation:
Into the existing data can be drawn from the results of equations 7921.72 yuan is 2014 Xuzhou price of commercial housing.Take the average of the results of the two models 8354.86 yuan in 2014 as a final prediction value Xuzhou average commercial housing price.
Finally, the establishment of standard deviation models are analyzed and evaluated the reasonableness of the price of commercial housing in Xuzhou City, found Z1 namely 2007 to 2013, the price earnings ratio Xuzhou are not within the reasonable range; only the 2010 and 2011 housing prices in Xuzhou City cost ratio is within a reasonable range. Therefore, the whole 2007 to 2013 in Xuzhou City residential rates are unreasonable.
Key Words: housing prices, Regression Analysis, SPSS ,Rate cost ratio, Price earnings ratio
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
1 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景、目的与意义 1
1.2 研究区域概述(徐州市房地产市场现状) 1
2 数据来源与研究方法 2
2.1 数据来源 2
2.2 研究方法 2
2.2.1 主要研究内容 2
2.2.2 实施方案 2
2.2.3 创新点 2
2.3 研究路线 2
3 住宅价格预测 4
3.1 相关性分析 4
3.2 影响因素选择 4
3.3 数据使用的选择 5
3.4 基于多元线性回归模型的住宅价格预测模型的建立 5
3.4.1 多元线性回归模型的简介 6
3.4.2 共线性检测 6
3.4.3 多元回归模型建立和住宅房价预测 7
3.4.5 利用趋势预测模型预测住宅价格 8
4 对徐州市住宅价格的合理性预测 9
4.1 房价收入比概念 9
4.2 徐州市历年房价收入比数据 10
4.3 房价成本比的概念 10
4.4 徐州市历年房价成本比数据 11
4.5 标准差模型的建立 11
4.6 住宅价格合理性分析 12
5 结论分析与评价 13
致 谢 15
参考文献 16