摘要根据江苏省统计年鉴提供的历年耕地面积及经济发展数据，采用 Chow 检 验、ADF 检验、协整分析、AIC 准则以及 Granger 因果关系检验等计量经济研究 方法，并利用 Eviews8。0 软件进行数据分析，研究江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增 长之间的关系，得出江苏省耕地变化与经济发展的关系具有阶段性特征。自 1978 年以来，江苏省耕地面积与经济发展大致经历了两个阶段：第一阶段（1978~1991） 是互为因果关系，在该阶段内江苏省经济增长主要由耕地的牺牲为代价。这种模 式的结果是注重社会经济发展，却忽略了耕地保护，造成环境负担。第二阶段（1992~2009）是单向因果关系，在该阶段内耕地资源数量减少为经济发展提供 了土地保障的作用，但经济增长并不是耕地资源数量变化的原因。从 1978~2009 长期来看，江苏省在这一时间段内经济增长与耕地变化存在单向因果关系，即耕 地面积数量变化对经济的发展产生了积极的影响，但经济发展并不是耕地面积减 少的原因。因此江苏省在不同时期耕地的变化与经济发展之间的关系是不同的， 从最初的占用耕地、发展经济到之后的保护耕地、坚持可持续发展，江苏省经历 了很漫长的道路。72233

在对江苏省 1978~2009 年各阶段耕地变化与经济发展之间的关系进行探究 的基础上，对如何处理耕地面积减少与经济发展之间的关系提出建议，包括：1) 提高土地利用效率；2）完善政策，突破障碍；3）合理供应土地,分区域对待；4） 调整经济增长速度，改变传统增长动力；5）支持核心技术产业，以创新引领经 济。这对今后经济发展与耕地变化相关问题的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。

该论文有图 5 幅，表 8 个，参考文献 26 篇。

毕业论文关键词：耕地变化 经济发展 协整分析 Eviews8。0 Granger 因果关系检验 江 苏省

An Empirical Study of Jiangsu Province Cultivated Land Change and Economic Development

Abstract According to the cultivated land and economic development data provided by the Statistical Yearbook in Jiangsu Province,using Chow test, ADF test, co-integration analysis, Akaike information criterion and Granger causality test and other economic methods of measurement, and use the software for data analysis Eviews8。0 research the relationship between cultivated land change and economic growth in Jiangsu province, obtained the relationship of cultivated land change and economic development in Jiangsu province have phase characteristics。 Since 1978, cultivated land and economic development in Jiangsu Province, has gone through two stages: the first stage (1978 to 1991) is both cause and effect relationship, in this stage, the economic growth in Jiangsu Province by the expense of farmland。The results of this model is to focus on social and economic development, but ignored the protection of farmland,  causing   environmental  burden。  The  second   phase  (1992  to  2009)    is

unidirectional  causality ， during this stage, reducing the number of cultivated   land

resources provides a guarantee for the economic development of the land, but economic growth is not cultivated land resources change a number of reasons。 From 1978 to 2009 the long term,the presence of unidirectional causality in this period of economic growth and change of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province。that  is,  the change of cultivated Land has a positive impact on economic development, but economic development is not the reasons for the reduction of cultivated land。 Therefore, the relationship between the change of cultivated Land and economic development in Jiangsu Province is different in different periods, from the initial occupation of cultivated land for economic development to the protection  of cultivated land, adhere to sustainable development, Jiangsu Province experienced a very long way。