摘要企业的投资行为直接影响融资决策、股利分配，间接影响宏观经济，是企业发展的主要动力，其重要性不言而喻。投资决策一般由管理者制定，这些管理者具有高于一般人的素质，理论上而言，决策具有有效性，但是，我国上市公司中非理性投资行为特别是过度投资现象却普遍存在，由于投资过度而陷入危机的企业不在少数。传统理论在“理性经济人”的假设条件下，从委托代理与信息不对称理论方面进行解释，指出利益的不一致是管理者非理性投资的原因。随着行为金融理论的发展，管理者的心理被纳入研究范围，研究指出管理者的心理因素，特别是过度自信会导致其作出过度投资的决策。83678

本文从行为金融理论出发，大量阅读了以往学者在这方面的研究文献，总结了他们对于管理者过度自信这一心理因素的量化方法，并通过对比这些方法，采用盈利下降时持股上升来作为本文的衡量方法。本文还参考Richardson的残差度量模型来衡量过度投资。在此基础上，本文通过建立模型验证了管理者过度自信与过度投资的关系。同时，本文在阅读大量文献时还发现，现金流对于这一关系有影响，所以引入过度自信-自由现金流这一交互项来进一步验证在管理者过度自信情况下，企业投资对于现金流的敏感度。

通过研究，本文发现，管理者的过度自信会造成非理性投资，且与过度投资成正相关。充裕的现金流会加重过度自信的管理者的过度投资情况，短缺的现金流会削弱过度自信的管理者的过度投资情况。   

毕业论文关键词  上市公司  过度自信  非理性投资  现金流

毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要

Title   An empirical study of overconfidence and irrational investment in listed companies                               

Abstract Investment behavior of enterprises directly affect the financing decisions and pidend distribution, indirectly affect the macroeconomic。 It is the main driving force for enterprise development, and its importance is self-evident。 Usually, enterprise managers make investment decisions, and their qualities are higher than normal human。 theoretically, The decisions they made are valid, however, listed companies’ irrational investment behavior was widespread in China; many companies are in crisis since overinvestment。 Traditional theory explain this phenomenon in the assumption of "rational economic man"。 They point out that inconsistent interest is the cause of irrational investment。 With the development of behavioral finance theory, research indicates that overconfidence can lead to over-investment decisions。

This paper is based on the behavioral finance theory。 After reading lots of previous research literature in this area, this paper summarized the measuring methods for the overconfidence, and by comparing these methods, this paper used shares’ rises when earnings fall as the measure。 This paper also used Richardson’s residual model for reference to measure over-investment。 On this basis, this paper verified the relationship between managerial overconfidence and over-investment by creating a model。 When reading previous research literature, I also fund that free cash flow will affect the relationship between overconfidence and over-investment, so I introduced interactive items to further validate the effect。

Through research, this paper discovered that managers’ overconfidence positively correlated with over-investment。 Sufficient cash flow will increase overconfident managers’ over-investment behavior, and a shortage of cash flow will weaken this behavior。

Keywords  overconfidence  irrational investment  cash flow