摘要全国汽车保有量对于国民经济持续稳定的增长有着重要的促进作用，因此研究全国私家车保有量的情况对研究全国的经济现状、经济发展具有十分重要的意义。

本文通过对2000年至2015年固定资产投资总额、居民消费价格指数、国民总收入、人均GDP、石油消费总量、公路里程总数等数据进行统计分析，研究全国私家车保有量的发展趋势，运用统计软件SPSS进行数据处理。通过采用逐步回归的方法，从选取的六个指标中，只有三个指标进入回归方程，对私家车保有量具有显著影响的有固定资产投资总额、国民总收入、人均GDP这三个指标。之后，通过统计分析建立多元线性回归模型，然后对模型进行拟合优度检验、异方差性检验、多重共线性检验等等，并对未来几年全国私家车保有量做出趋势预测。结果显示，国定资产投资总额、人均GDP对私家车保有量有促进作用，而国民总收入对私家车保有量有抑制作用。最后，为了促进私家车保有量的科学合理的增长与社会经济快速的发展，给出科学合理地建议。86725

毕业论文关键词：私家车；固定资产总额；多元线性回归分析；拟合优度检验

Abstract The national car ownership has an important role in promoting the sustained and stable growth of the national economy。 Therefore, the study of national private car ownership has a very important significance for the research of the economic situation and economic development of the whole country。

In this paper, the development trend of private car ownership is investigated through statistically analyzing the data of total fixed asset investment, consumer price index, gross national income, per capita GDP, total oil consumption, total road mileage etc, and we apply the SPSS statistical software to deal with the data in the article。 By using the method of stepwise regression, only three of the six indexes are selected to enter the regression equation。 The variables of significant effect on the private car ownership are the total investment in fixed assets, gross national income, the per capita GDP。 Then, the multivariate linear regression model was established by statistical analysis, and is tested by the goodness of fit test, the test of different variance, and the multiple co linearity test, finally, the trend of the private car ownership in the next few years is predicted through the obtained the model。 The results show that the effect of the national assets investment, GDP of average per capita on private car ownership is positive, but that of the gross national income on the private car ownership is negative。 At last, in order to promote the scientific and rational growth of private car ownership and the rapid development of social economy, the scientific and reasonable suggestions are given。

Keywords: Private car; Total fixed assets; Multiple linear regression analysis;Goodness of fit test。

目  录

第一章 绪论 2

1。1引言 2

1。2现状分析 3

第二章 过程论述 5

2。1建立模型 5

2。1。1多元线性回归方法的概述 5

2。1。2 因素的设定 6

2。1。3 数据的收集 6

2。1。4 多元线性回归分析 7

2。1。5 结论分析 2

第三章  统计检验与预测 3

3。1计量经济学检验 3

3。1。1 异方差性检验