摘要：低温灾害风险评估与区划是自然灾害评估与管理的重要内容，合理的低温灾害风险评估能够为低温冷害预警和防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。本文以江苏省为例，基于自然灾害风险形成原理，利用气象、基础地理信息、农业和经济社会等方面数据，从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、以及抗灾能力4个方面综合评估江苏省低温灾害风险程度的地区差异，最终建立低温灾害风险评估指标体系。采用层次分析法对各指标权重进行确定，利用加权综合法构建综合评价指数，借助GIS空间分析实现低温冷害风险区划。结果表明江苏省低温灾害风险评估模型较全面的反映出江苏省的低温灾害风险水平。江苏省低温灾害风险从北向南递降，高风险区位于徐州、连云港、宿迁和淮安，低风险区包括南通市、无锡市、常州市、苏州等地区。91088

毕业论文关键词：低温冷害，风险评估，风险区划，江苏省

Abstract: The risk assessment and zoning of low temperature disaster is an important content of disaster assessment and management。 Reasonable risk assessment of low temperature disaster can provide scientific basis for early warning and disaster prevention and mitigation。 Based on the principle of natural disaster risk formation, we used meteorological data, basic geographic information, and socioeconomic data to analyze the rule of occurrence and development of low temperature。 From 4 aspects of risk factors of disaster causing factors, the sensitivity of disaster environment, the vulnerability of disaster bearing body, and the ability of disaster resistance, the regional differences of risk of low temperature in Jiangsu province were comprehensively evaluated, and ultimately a comprehensive disaster risk index system was established。 The weights of each index was given by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the comprehensive evalu ation index being constructed by weighted synthesis method, and the risk pision of low temper ature disaster is realized by GIS spatial analysis。 The results showed that the risk assessment model of freezing disaster in Jiangsu Province is suitable to reflect the risk of freezing disaster in Jiangsu Province。 The risk of low temperature disaster in Jiangsu province gradually decreased from the north to the south。 High risk area is located in Xuzhou, Lianyungang, Suqian and Huaian, and low risk region mainly include Nantong, Wuxi, Changzhou, and Suzhou。源G于J优L尔V论N文M网WwW.youeRw.com 原文+QQ75201`8766

Keywords：Low temperature disaster, Risk assessment, Risk zonation, Jiangsu   Province

目 录

1前言 4

2研究区域和数据资料 4

2。1研究区域概况 4

2。2数据资料 5

3研究方法 5

3。1主要思路 5

3。2江苏省低温灾害风险评价指标体系的建立 6

3。3江苏省低温灾害风险评价模型构建 6

3。3。1层次分析法 7

3。3。2归一化方法 8

3。3。3加权综合评价法 8

4江苏省低温冷冻灾害风险区划与分析 9

4。1致灾因子危险性区划与分析 9

4。2孕灾环境敏感性区划与分析 10

4。3承灾体易损性区划与分析 11