中国干旱时空变化特征及其与气象因子的关系
摘要中国干旱灾害发生频繁，给农业生产乃至国民经济造成了巨大的损失。本文 以植被状态指数(VCI)作为干旱监测与分级指标，利用 NOAA/AVHRR 数据计算 得到 VCI 数据集，并结合地面气象站点数据，分析了中国 1982-2010 年干旱时 空变化特征及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明：70794
（1）就全国范围而言，中国 1982-2010 年干旱呈缓慢的波动式下降，但在 不同地理区域呈现出阶段性的变化特征。
（2）中国干旱发生频率较高，呈现北高南低的空间分布特征。但针对不同的 干旱等级，各地区则以轻旱、中旱为主，重旱发生频率很低，而在塔里木盆地、 柴达木盆地等生态环境脆弱的地区多呈正常。
（3）气象因子对干旱的影响存在明显的地域差异，且两者间相关系数和偏相 关系数的比较分析表明，两者之间关系较为复杂，某一地区是否发生干旱取决于 多种气象因子。另外，干旱对气象因子的响应存在滞后效应，亦具有明显的地域 差异。
该论文有图 12 幅，表 4 个，参考文献 34 篇。
毕业论文关键词：干旱 VCI 气象因子 遥感监测
Analysis of spatial-temporal variation characteristics of drought and its relationship with meteorological factors in China from 1982 to 2010
Abstract Drought disasters occur frequently in China, which causes great damages to the agricultural production and national economy. Based on the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), a monitoring and grading indicator of drought , using NOAA/AVHRR data to calculate China's VCI and combining ground meteorological data, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal variation characteristics of drought and its relationship with meteorological factors in China from 1982 to 2010. Results showed that:
1) In terms of nationwide, the drought China from 1982 to 2010 appeared slow fluctuation in decline, but in different geographical areas, it appeared periodic variation characteristics.
2) China's drought frequency was higher, and it showed the space distribution features of “higher in north and lower in south ”. According to the different levels of drought, it could be found that the frequency of mild drought and moderate drought in four geographical areas were higher, and the frequency of severe drought was lower. However, in these areas with fragile ecological environment, such as the Tarim basin and the Qaidam basin, it mainly showed normal.
3) The influences of meteorological factors on drought existed obvious regional differences. By comparing correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient of VCI for different meteorological factors, the complex relationships of theirs showed that drought depended on many factors,. There is a hysteresis effect for drought’s response to meteorological factors, and it also has obvious regional differences.
Key Words: drought VCI meteorological factors remote sensing monitoring
目 录
摘要-Ⅰ
AbstractⅡ
目录Ⅲ
图清单-Ⅳ
表清单-Ⅳ
1 绪论 1
1.1 概述 1
1.3 主要研究内容 2
1.4 技术路线 2
2 研究数据与方法 4