摘要拉动经济增长的三驾马车毫无疑问是消费、投资和净出口，其中，消费是最重要的一架马车。改革开放以来，我国经济持续、快速的增长，但是，随之而来的是城乡居民收入差距不断地拉大。为缩小城乡经济差距，提高农村居民的生活水平，实现我国经济的稳定发展，如何启动和扩大农村消费市场成为当务之急。从杭州市统计信息网上的统计年鉴中了解到：杭州市农村居民生活消费支出从2005年的6004元迅速提高到2010年的10227元，平均每年提高了844.6元。研究杭州市农村居民消费支出，及时把握消费变化情况，对了解杭州市的消费现状和未来趋势，制定正确的消费政策和战略，优化农村消费结构和推动杭州市经济发展具有重要的意义。本文通过对杭州市2000年——2014年的人均消费支出进行研究，并在此基础上通过灰色预测法对消费项目的未来趋势进行预测。71725

    Pull economic growth troika is undoubtedly consumption,investment and net exports, consumption is one of the most important horse carriage. Since reform and opening-up, China's rapid and sustained economic growth, however, followed by the urban and rural residents' income gap has widened continuously. To narrow the gap between urban and rural economy, improve the living standards of rural residents, realize the stable development of economy in our country, how to start and expand rural consumption market become the urgent matter. From hangzhou online learned in the statistical yearbook of statistics: hangzhou rural residents living consumption expenditure increased from 6004 yuan in 2005 to 2010 of 10227 yuan, increased to 844.6 yuan per year on average. Study of hangzhou rural residents' consumption expenditure, timely grasp the change of the consumption, consumption present situation and future trend of understanding of hangzhou, formulate correct consumption policy and strategy, optimizing the structure of rural consumption and promote the economic development of hangzhou has the vital significance. This article through to the hangzhou city in 2000-2014 per capita consumption expenditure, and on this basis through the grey prediction method to predict the future trend of consumer items.

毕业论文关键词：农村居民；灰色预测；消费

  Keyword: rural residents;grey prediction;consumption

目   录

1、什么叫灰色预测法？ 4

2、GM(1，1)模型的建立 4

2.1建立一次累加生成数列。 4

2.2利用最小二乘法求参数a,μ。 4

2.3 对微分方程进行求解。 4

2.4对模型精度的检验。 5

3、 用灰色预测法对杭州市农村居民人均消费进行预测 5

4、杭州市农村居民的各项人均消费支出和结构比例 7

5、分析 10

6、扩大杭州市农村居民消费的建议 10

6.1提高杭州市农村居民的收入水平，增强消费能力 10

6.2加大对农村公路的建设 10

6.3加大对农村的文化事业的经费投入 11

6.4完善社会保障体系缓解医疗保健压力 11

6.5加强市场流通体系建设 12

6.6转变农村居民的消费观念，引导他们合理、科学的消费