摘要安全态势感知是一种新兴的安全技术，在网络安全、军事等领域得到广泛应用，能够评估系统的整体安全状态并对其发展趋势进行预测。本文将安全态势感知引入到城市轨道交通领域，在北京地铁调研、客伤情况统计分析和地铁安全影响因素分析基础上，提出了基于多文联系数和灰色预测的城市轨道交通车站安全态势感知模型，其中，安全态势理解模型根据评价指标体系采用多文联系数理论建立，安全态势预测模型依据过去和当前安全态势值采用灰色预测模型建立。最后本文以北京五道口站为例进行分析，结果显示该模型能够精确得到五道口站现在的安全态势并进行短时间预测，能够为更好地保护乘客出行安全和车站安全运营提供新的思路。22414
毕业论文关键词 安全态势感知；态势理解；态势预测；评价指标体系；
Title The Method Research of Urban Rail Transit Station Security Situation Awareness
Abstract
As a new security technology, the method of security situational awareness
has been widely used in the area of the network security, military, etc.
For a system, this method aims to assess the overall security status and
further predict its trend．This paper introduces the concept of the
security situational awareness to the field of urban rail transportation
and studies its method in the field of urban rail transit.Owe to the
detailed passenger injury statistical analysis and safety factor analysis
during the research in Beijing,the Multi-dimensional Contact and Grey
forecast based security situation awareness model of urban rail transit
station is proposed．Among them, the Security Situational understanding
model is established by the Multidimensional Contact Number Theory based
on the security situational evaluation index system while the security
posture prediction model is established by the Grey forecasting theory
based on the past and current security posture value.Taking Wu Daokou
station as an example for analysis, the model can accurately get the present
and the future security situation, which can provide the decision basis
for managers and benefits the passengers travel security and station
security operation.
Keywords Security situation awareness, Situation understanding,
Situation prediction, Index system目 次
1 引言. 1
1．1 论文选题背景 1
1．2 国内外研究现状.. 2
1．3 研究的目的与意义. 4
1．4 内容组织及架构.. 5
2 基本理论研究 7
2．1 安全态势感知概念. 7
2．2 拟采取的技术路线. 8
3 安全态势获取. 10
3．1 调研情况概述与分析. 10
3．2 态势感知评价指标体系的建立 17
3．3 评价指标量化. 28
4 安全态势理解. 29
4．1 安全态势评价理论与方法.. 29
4．2 基于多文联系数理论的安全态势感知理解模型.. 30
4．3 安全态势分级. 33
4．4 算例及结果分析 35
5 安全态势预测. 38
5．1 基于 GM(1,1)的安全态势感知预测模型 38
5．2 算例及结果分析 41
结论.. 43
致谢.. 45
参考文献 46
附录A. 481 引言
1．1 论文选题背景
城市轨道交通是现代化大都市广泛采用的一种安全、舒适、环保、可靠的大运量
有轨交通工具，对改善群众出行条件、缓解城市交通压力、节能减排、节约土地资源、
带动沿线土地开发利用、推动城市经济发展有着重要的作用。为此，中国各地掀起了
兴建地铁的热潮。而北京地铁作为中国大陆最繁忙的城市轨道交通系统，截至 2014
年 1 月，已拥有 17 条运营线路，覆盖北京市 11个市辖区，拥有 231 座运营车站、总 城市轨道交通车站安全态势感知方法研究:http://www.youerw.com/zidonghua/lunwen_15034.html