核应急决策中大气扩散模型的对比研究

摘要本论文使用 MVK 数据包中 Kincaid 数据集的气象数据以及示踪气体试验数据对RIMPUFF扩散模型以及POLAIR 3D欧拉扩散模型进行了对比研究。在两个扩散模型的扩散方向，以及纠正方向后的浓度场分布两个方面进行了研究。研究表明，在扩散方向上，RIMPUFF 扩散模型（平均值 4.039 度，标准偏差 15.98）与欧拉扩散模型（平均值 4.226度，标准偏差12.50）相差无几，两者均比较差；在浓度场的分布上，RIMPUFF 扩散模型（平均偏差-0.1586，比例偏差-0.4181）和欧拉扩散模型（平均偏差-1.7189，比例偏差-1.4825）相比，在平均浓度的预测准确度上占优，但两个模型对于具体位置上的预测浓度并不准确。综合考虑，RIMPUFF 扩散模型略优于欧拉扩散模型, 但两个模型的预测结果均与观测值差的比较多。 27239
毕业论文关键词扩散模型模型对比 RIMPUFF 欧拉 Kincaid
Title   Comparative Study of the Atmospheric Dispersion Models in Nuclear Emergency Decision
Abstract
In this thesis, the RIMPUFF dispersion model and the POLAIR 3D Euler dispersion
model were compared by using the meteorological data and tracer gas test data of
the Kincaid dataset in the MVK packet. We studied two areas of the two dispersion
models, one area is the dispersion direction, and the other is the distribution
of concentration field after correct direction. The results of this study has shown
that minor difference between RIMPUFF dispersion model (mean: 4.039 degrees,
standard deviation: 15.98) and Euler dispersion model (mean: 4.226 degrees,
standard deviation: 12.50) in the direction of dispersion. Both of the two models
are poor in the direction prediction. In the distribution of the concentration
field, RIMPUFF dispersion model (average deviation: -0.1586, ratio deviation:
-0.4181) is better than Euler dispersion model (average deviation: -1.7189, ratio
deviation: -1.4825), but the two models for predicting the concentration of
specific location is not accurate. Comprehensive consideration, RIMPUFF
dispersion model is slightly better than the Euler dispersion model, but the
results of the two models are not good.
Keywords    dispersion model, Model comparison, RIMPUFF, Euler, Kincaid
目   次
1 引言 . 1
2 大气扩散模型与实验数据的介绍 . 3
2.1 RIMPUFF模型简介    3
2.2 POLAIR 3D欧拉大气扩散模式简介   6
2.3 KINCAID实验数据集 . 11
3 针对KINCAID实验的模型模拟    13
3.1 RIMPUFF模型模拟计算 . 13
3.2 欧拉模型模拟计算 . 13
4 结果比较与分析    15
4.1 分析方法 . 15
4.2 RIMPUFF模型预测结果与监测值的比较 . 17
4.3 欧拉法模型预测结果与监测值的比较 . 19
4.4 RIMPUFF和欧拉法模型预测结果的对比分析 . 22
结论 . 24
致谢 . 25
参考文献   26
1 引言
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