中国和越南的比较研究汇率波动对经济增长的影响
时间:2018-05-10 21:23 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 摘要汇率波动会直接影响两国的经济贸易和外商直接投资，经过传导机制会使物价水平发生变化和货币供应量也会发生变化，最终会影响到就业以及经济增长。所以定量研究汇率波动对经济影响是十分必要和重要的。本文主要研究越南汇率波动对经济增长的影响，鉴于越南和中国的国情相近，本文也将中国和越南外汇波动对经济增长的影响进行分析，比较两国汇率波动对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明，汇率波动与经济增长的交互作用，在中国表现得比越南更充分。在中国，稳定汇率有助于稳定的经济增长，尤其是经济长期增长依赖稳定的汇率。因此，稳定汇率应该是外汇政策的重要任务之一。在越南，汇率对经济增长的影响机制不稳定，因此，一定时期的外汇政策不必囿于汇率稳定目标。22680 关键词 越南 汇率波动 经济增长 Granger检验 毕业论文中文摘要 毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要 Title The impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Development—based on Vietnam and China Abstract Fluctuations in exchange rates will directly affect the economy and trade between the two countries and foreign direct investment, and changes in the money supply will change the price level through the transmission mechanism, and will happen eventually affect employment and economic growth. Therefore, quantitative study on the economic impact of exchange rate fluctuations is very necessary and important. This paper studies the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Vietnam's economic growth, given similar conditions in Vietnam and China, the paper will also analyze the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on China and Vietnam's economic growth, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the comparison of the two countries economic growth. The results show that fluctuations in exchange rates and economic growth interactions in China performed better than Vietnam more fully. In China, a stable exchange rate helps to steady economic growth, especially in long-term economic growth depends on a stable exchange rate. Therefore, a stable exchange rate should be one of the important tasks of foreign exchange policy. In Vietnam, the unstable exchange rate mechanism of the impact on economic growth, therefore, foreign policy is not necessarily confined to a certain period of exchange rate stability target. Keywords: Vietnam; Exchange rate volatility; Economic development; Granger test 目 次 1 引言 1 1.1 问题提出 1 1.2研究思路和方法 1 1.2.1 研究思路 1 1.2.2 研究方法 2 1.3论文结构及主要内容 2 2相关理论和研究现状 3 2.1 汇率与汇率制度 3 2.1.1 汇率的概念 3 2.2.2 汇率制度的概念 3 2.2 汇率波动的影响因素 4 2.3 汇率波动和经济增长 5 2.4 国内外研究现状 6 3汇率波动对经济增长的实证分析 9 3.1中越汇率波动及经济增长分析 9 3.1.1中国经济增长及汇率波动现状 9 3.1.2 越南经济增长及汇率波动现状 12 3.2 中国汇率波动对经济增长的影响分析 15 3.3越南汇率波动对经济增长的影响分析 17 3.4实证结果总结 18 4政策建议及研究展望 19 4.1政策建议 19 4.1.1 进一步完善汇率制度 19 4.1.2提高资本市场效率 19 (责任编辑：qin) |