欧美债务危机对中国股市走势的影响传导机制及效应
时间:2017-05-11 16:51 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 摘要欧美债务危机自2009年爆发以来，使得原本刚有些起色的世界经济一时间阴霾重重,各国股市纷纷下挫。在全球化相互依存的背景下，作为重要经济体之一的中国也难以独善其身，中国股市也在09年后屡创新低。8412 本论文在运用国际金融传导理论分析总结出欧美债务危机从贸易、金融和非接触性传导三种传导机制的基础上，采用计量统计中的图形分析和相关系数分析方法对采集的欧美债务危机爆发前后欧美中三地股票指数的日数据以及国际原油价格日数据进行比较分析，检验中国股市在欧美债务危机期间是否与国际股市及大宗商品有联动传导效应。结果表明，中国股市同欧洲股市的传导效应较为明显，但美国股指以及国际油价之间的传导效应不显著，由此看来，中国股市自身仍存在一定的特殊性。 关键词 欧美主权债务危机 传导机制 传导效应 毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要 Title Influences of the Trend of China's Stock Market from European and American Sovereign Debt Crisis — Focus on Conduction Mechanisms and Effects Abstract Since outbreaking in 2009, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States makes the global economy out of the situation that just got better from the Subprime Crisis. In the context of globalization, China, as one of the major economies, has also not been spared. China's stock market has been trough the lower recorded price, with the Stock markets around the world tumbled in the debt crisis. The transmission mechanism of the European and American sovereign debt crisis on the Chinese stock market and the conduction effect of the European and American stock market on the Chinese stock market in the sovereign debt crisis deserve to be studied. In this paper, I will sum up three main conduction mechanism of the European and American sovereign debt crisis on the Chinese stock market, named the trade, finance and non-contact conduction, in the use of international financial conduction theory. Then I will test the significance of the conduction effect from international-stock markets and staple commodities to China's stock market during the debt crisis in Europe and America, with collecting the daily data of the stock indexes in Europe, the United States and China, as well as international crude oil prices daily data, based on the use of measurement statistics for comparative analysis, graphical analysis and correlation analysis method. The results show that the conduction effect was not significant between the Chinese stock market with the U.S. stock, as well as international oil prices. China's stock market is still a certain degree of particularity. Keywords: Sovereign debt crisis in Europe and America; Conduction Mechanisms; Conduction Effects 目 次 1 引言 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 1 1.2 文章结构和主要内容 2 2 传导机制及相关理论的综述 2 2.1 主权债务危机国际传导的含义 2 2.2 国外对主权债务危机的传导效应研究综述 3 2.3 国内对主权债务危机的传导效应研究综述 4 2.4 小结 5 3 欧美债务危机情况及其传导机制 5 3.1 欧美债务危机相关情况介绍 5 3.1.1 债务危机的基本内涵及欧债危机发展历程回顾 5 3.1.2 欧美债务危机发生原因分析 6 3.2 主权债务危机对中国经济的传导特点 8 (责任编辑：qin) |