摘要：距离1978年改革开放已经过去近40年了，这些年随着改革开放进程的不断深入，我国与世界经济日益融为一体，进出口额及其在GDP中的比重也在不断增加。而我国从国际贸易中得到的收益是否能伴随着我国开放度的提高而增长呢？能够回答这个问题的方法也正是本文要探究的，对我国进出口商品价格与贸易条件变化的分析研究。50511

现阶段涉及到这方面的文献，总的来看，大多数学者和研究者主张我们的贸易条件是在不断恶化的。例如，赵裕民（2003）、黄满盈（2009）、王汝中（2000），朱金鹃（2009），都认为我国价格贸易条件总体趋势恶化。赵海博（2007），朱金鹃（2009）、李汉俊（2010）指出，我国经复杂加工的工业产品和商品的贸易条件持续下滑，在未经加工的原始产品的价格贸易条件有所改善的情况下。因为经复杂加工的工业产品和商品，也就是制成品，是目前主要的出口商品，因此总体贸易条件是恶化的；杜肖言（2006）认为我国价格贸易条件恶化，主要是因为他主张贸易制度和贸易体制的陈旧限制了价格贸易条件的改善。孙辉（2008）从贸易战略出发，分析了改革开放后的我国的贸易发展战略的转移选择情况，认为完全自由贸易战略导致了价格贸易条件的恶化。当然也有许多学者从贸易结构、产业组织、外商直接投资、技术进步等不同角度对贸易条件进行了研究，得出了相应的结论。

上述文献大都取自于每年统计的数据，分析的时间跨度都比较短，而且基本上偏重于宏观层面的研究，不够细致，因此在一定程度上限制了分析的深入。本文在我国统计年鉴对货物进出口的原始统计分类的基础上，构建了我国价格贸易条件指数，分析了贸易条件的变化趋势及原因，找出影响贸易条件变化的因素，进而提出了合理的政策指导意见。

毕业论文关键词:价格贸易条件、进出口价格、变动趋势

Abstract

Distance nearly 40 years of reform and opening up has been passed in 1978, over the years, with the deepening of the reform and opening up process, our country and the world economy is increasingly integrated, imports and exports and its weight in GDP is growing. But our country can get benefits from international trade along with the improvement of China's openness and growth? Can answer to this problem is, this article tries to deal with import and export commodity prices and terms of trade of our country change analysis.

The current literature related to this kind of has not obviously, overall, most researchers think our trade conditions are deteriorating. Since reform and opening up, for example, Wang Ruzhong (1999), Zhao Yumin (2002), Zhu Jinjuan full (2008), yellow (2008), all think that the overall trend of the price terms of trade of our country is worsening; Direct Guo Peixing (2001) pointed out that China's primary products and manufactured goods, finished goods and the trade terms are always present a different degree of deterioration; Fei-xiang Chen (2005) argues that in the continuous improvement of income trade term is, single factor terms of trade for a long time to faster growth. Terms of double elements trade Hu Jing (2008), Wang Suqin (2008), chrisma (2004), xiao-ting wang (2008) calculated by scholars in China and the United States, Japan, Korea, Germany, the double factor terms of trade, it is concluded that in the 90 s, double factor terms of trade of our country and the United States, Japan improved increasingly, China and South Korea's double factor terms of trade is not optimistic. Check your yong (2005) argues that RMB real exchange rate changes and the changes in China's foreign trade conditions there was a positive correlation. Many scholars from the terms of trade structure, industrial organization, FDI, technological progress and other different angles of the trade terms are studied, similar to the above theory or different conclusions are drawn.