摘要：选取洪泽湖生态经济区范围内盱眙、淮安、蚌埠和高邮四个气象站自1960年至2014年逐日气温数据，分析逐年极端最低温和极端最高温的变化特征，以期对洪泽湖生态经济区今后的经济发展、生态环境保护起到一定的指导和示范作用。本文采用线性回归分析，累积距平法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法，分析研究了近50年来极端气温的变化趋势。结果表明：洪泽湖生态经济区在这54年内，极端最低温和极端最高温都有不同程度的增温趋势，其中极端最低温的上升趋势比极端最高温更为显著，四个气象站点的变化趋势和速率也不尽相同；无论是年极端最低温还是年极端最高温，在1975年到1981年前后，温度发生了一次较为明显的突变，温度表现为由冷转暖并逐渐趋于平稳。94501

毕业论文关键词：洪泽湖生态经济区，极端气温，线性回归，Mann-Kendall趋势检验，累积距平 

Abstract：The daily temperature date from 1960 to 2014 of Xuyi, Huai'an, Bengbu and Gaoyou in the area of Hongze Lake Ecological Economic Zone were selected to analyze the changing characteristics of the extreme minimum temperature and extreme maximum temperature, with a view to play a guiding and exemplay role on the future economic development and the protection of ecologica environment of Hongze Lake Ecological Economic Zone。 In this paper, the trend of extreme temperature in nearly 50 years is analyzed by using linear trend estimation, accumulative anomaly and Mann-Kendall trend test method。 The results show that the extreme minimum temperature and extreme maximum temperation of Hongze Lake ecological environment have different degree of temperature increasing in the 54 years, among which the rising trend of extreme minimum temperature is more significant than that of extreme maximum temperature, and the changing trend and the rate of four meteorological stations is also different; Whether it is the extreme minimum temperature or the maximum temperature of the year, the temperature in the mid to late 1980s to the early 1990s happened a sudden change obviously from cold to warm; In the process of the temperature change of nearly 51 years, the temperature is relatively low in the early (before the 1980s) and is relatively stable in the medium term (around 1990s) and is increased significantly in the late (after 1990s), especially after the 1990s, the warming trend is more obvious, and temperature shows a continuous warming trend。 

Keywords：Hongze Lake Ecological Economic Zone,extreme temperature,linear trend estimation,accumulative anomaly ,Mann-Kendall trend test method 

目   录

1 引言3

2 研究区域概况3

2。1 洪泽湖生态经济区简介3

3 研究方法3

3。1 极端气温的定义4

3。2 线性回归4

3。3 Mann-Kendall趋势检验法4

4 结果分析5

4。1 气温变化趋势分析5

4。2 气温突变情况分析8

4。3极端气温平均值变化研究11

结论13

参考文献14

致谢15

1 引言 来自优I尔Q论T文D网WWw.YoueRw.com 加QQ7520~18766

气候变化历来与人类生存环境有着密不可分的关系，细微的变化都会带来巨大的影响，因而气候变化一直是学术界的热点研究方向。IPCC第四次评估报告表明，气候变暖的客观事实是毋庸置疑的。淮河是我国的一条重要的地理分界线，其流域范围内城市众多、人口密布，对气候变化的响应是十分敏感的，气候条件作为农业发展中极为重要的影响因子，具有极大的研究价值。极端高温和极端低温带来的不利后果，严重影响洪泽湖生态经济区内的农业发展与人类正常生活，因此就极端气温事件的变化特征做出相应的研究，对该区的可持续发展有深远意义。