摘要在电力系统运行的过程中，常常会存在许多不确定性的因素，如发电力出力随机变化，设备故障，环境影响等情况。此时，传统的潮流计算难以满足复杂多变的实际情况，因此，在电力系统运行和规划时需要使用考虑到系统运行不确定性的概率潮流计算。概率潮流计算的方法有很多种，如蒙特卡洛法，卷积法和点估计法，其中点估计法有良好的计算优越性。
本文提出了一个考虑风速相关性的概率潮流模型，它特别适合评估风力发电机等间歇发电机对电力系统网络的影响，概率潮流计算可以有效地把各种不确定的随机因素考虑在内，全面地分析系统运行状态，从而在分析风电并网对系统运行的影响这一领域得到了广泛的应用。本文提出的概率潮流模型采用IEEE-RTS 9节点系统和24节点系统进行验证。33626
关键词  概率潮流  点估计法  随机因素   风速相关
毕业论文设计说明书外文摘要
Title  Based on the point estimate method considering the wind
speed correlation probabilistic power flow calculation                     
Abstract
In the process of power system operation, often there are many uncertainty factors, such as power output random changes, equipment failure, environmental impact, etc. At this point, the traditional power flow calculation is difficult to meet the actual situation of complex and changeable, as a result, in power system operation and planning need to use when considering the uncertainty of the operation of the system of the probabilistic power flow calculation. There are many methods of probabilistic power flow calculation, such as the monte carlo method, convolution method and point estimate method, the point estimation method have good calculation superiority.
This paper puts forward a model considering the probability of wind speed correlation trend, it is especially suitable for evaluation of intermittent generators such as wind power impact on electric power network, probabilistic power flow calculation can be effectively considering all kinds of random factors, comprehensive analysis system running status, and on the analysis of wind power grid in the influence of system operation has been widely used. In this paper, the Probability trend model using the IEEE-RTS 9-bus system and 24-bus system for validation.
Keywords  Stochastic Load Flow  Point estimate method  Uncertain factors The wind speed correlation
目   次
1  绪论1
1.1  课题研究背景 1
1.2  课题研究意义 1
1.3  课题研究现状 2
1.4  本文主要工作 4
2  点估计法相关数学基础5
2.1  期望值和方差5
2.2  原点矩和中心矩 6
2.3  标准正态分布及其概率密度函数 7
2.4  Gram-Charlier 级数展开7
2.5  本章小结 9
3  点估计方法理论及牛顿拉夫逊法理论10
3.1  集中度概念10
3.2  输入变量相关性处理方法12
3.3  牛顿拉夫逊法简介15
3.4  本章小结18
4  基于点估计法的考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算19
4.1  风力发电机随机模型19
4.2  基于点估计法的考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算具体步骤21
4.3  本章小结23
5  算例分析24
5.1  IEEE-9节点系统 24
5.2  IEEE-24节点系统26
5.3  风速相关性对系统潮流的影响31
5.4  本章小结36
结论 37
致谢 38
参考文献 39
附录A  IEEE-9节点系统参数 40
附录B  IEEE-24节点系统参数41
1  绪论
1.1  课题研究背景 基于点估计法的考虑风速相关性的概率潮流计算:http://www.youerw.com/zidonghua/lunwen_30811.html