摘要乳制品业是推动第一、二、三产业协调发展的国家重要战略产业。虽然近年来中国乳制品行业一直维持着继美国（8470万t）、印度（4600万t）之后全球第三产奶大国的地位，但中国的乳制品出口缺乏包括质量、价格、品类、品牌等方面的竞争优势，且行业内部存在生产效率滞后的矛盾。我国出口的乳制品主要还是以资源、劳动密集型奶制品为主，整个行业呈现出低附加值经济增长态势。这种产量高，转化率低的简单数量扩张模式在减弱出口竞争力的同时还增加了进口压力。大量的乳制品进口加剧国内竞争，挤占国内市场，使得国内乳制品产业因缺乏竞争力转而向政府寻求更多的政策保护，而长期的贸易保护使乳制品行业在“被动”地规避国际市场竞争的同时却陷入对保护政策的“路径依赖”当中。75393

要论证现行的贸易保护对乳制品行业生产率产生了什么影响还需做进一步分析。因此，本文选取乳制品中液体乳、乳粉、炼乳、乳脂肪、干酪和其他乳制品产品（涉及HS04章和HS19章）代表乳制品进行整体分析。选取2000-2014年相关数据，通过 Malmquist生产率指数的测算，并纳入了贸易开放度这一指标来初步分析贸易保护强弱对乳制品行业全要素生产率的影响。通过OLS回归模型的构建进一步分析贸易保护影响行业全要素生产率的途径及不同形式贸易保护的差异化作用。结果表明制约我国乳制品行业全要素生产率增长的主要因素是技术效率的负增长。且在通关环节对乳制品行业贸易保护力度的强化不利于促进行业纯技术效率的提高，而对行业本身补贴力度的增强有利于提升行业的规模效率。最后本文就上述结论分析其内在原因，从而提出若干启示，避免中国乳制品行业陷入“贸易保护陷阱”。

Abstract：Dairy industry is the first, second and third industry coordinated development of national strategic industry。 Although in recent years, China's dairy industry has been maintained in the United States (84。7 million t), India (46 million t) after the first global firms of milk power status, but China's dairy exports lack including quality, price, category, brand competitive advantage, and industry is internal contradictions caused by lagging production efficiency。 China's export of dairy products mainly based on resources and labor-intensive products, the industry present a low value-added economic growth。 This kind of high output, low conversion rate of simple quantity expansion mode in weakening export competitiveness at the same time also increased the inlet pressure。 Large amounts of dairy imports increased domestic competition, from the domestic market, the domestic dairy industry due to a lack of competitiveness in turn to the government for more policy protection, and long-term trade protection makes the dairy industry in the "passive" to evade the international competition in the market at the same time in the protection policy of "path dependence"。 

To demonstrate the current trade protection made a difference to the dairy industry productivity still need to do further analysis。 Therefore, this article selects fluid in dairy milk powder, condensed milk, milk fat, cheese and other dairy products (involving the chapters HS04 and HS19) to represent the whole dairy products analysis。 Select the related data from 2000 to 2014, through the Malmquist productivity index, the index of and into the trade openness to trade protection according to the preliminary analysis strength for the dairy industry the impact of total factor productivity。 Through the construction of the OLS regression model to further analyze the effect of trade protection industry the way of total factor productivity and the differentiation of different forms of trade protection。 The results show that restricting China's dairy industry total factor productivity growth is the main factor of technical efficiency of negative growth。 And the clearance of the strengthening of the dairy industry trade protection against pure technical efficiency, promote the industry and the industry itself subsidies strength enhancement can promote industry scale efficiency。 At the end of the paper will analyze its internal causes the above conclusion, thus puts forward some revelation, avoid dairy products industry in China "Trade Protection Trap"。 贸易保护对乳制品行业生产效率影响的实证分析DEA-Malmquist指数:http://www.youerw.com/jingji/lunwen_86170.html