AHP法在特许经营项目融资PPP风险管理中的应用
时间:2017-06-17 15:15 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 摘要PPP（Public- Private partnership）模式，是指政府、营利性企业和非营利性企业基于某个项目而形成的相互合作关系的形式，其主要用于公共基础设施的开发与经营。随着我国经济的高速发展，社会对基础设施建设的需求日益增加，但我国在这方面的经营企业匮乏，导致对我国经济的发展形成了制约。而PPP融资模式的日渐成熟对基础设施建设形成了极大地推动。但PPP融资模式投资金额大，运行周期长，有较为复杂的运行模式，其中的风险种类多、变化快、难以机械化控制。因此如何对PPP融资模式进行成功的风险管理成为当下研究的热点问题。 风险识别、风险评估和风险处置被公认为项目风险管理的三大核心组成部分， 其中风险识别部分的理论已经较为成熟，风险评估和风险处置部分至今也没有得到特别成熟的运行模式及方法。 本文首先对该论题的研究背景及意义做出介绍；接下来对 PPP 项目及其风险管理的国内外研究现状做出了较为详细的介绍，便于读者对论题及后续文章的理解；最后基于PPP项目的风险评估过程建立了AHP法模型并给出了实例解析：通过用 AHP（层次分析法）法来讲PPP 项目的风险评价过程建立数学模型，阐述了如何将风险更为准确的量化分层；解释了如何通过数值模拟的方法，得到了一套较为使用的风险评价理论。相信会对今后的项目风险管理起到积极地作用。10278 关键词 AHP PPP项目融资 风险管理 风险评估 毕业设计说明书（论文）外文摘要 Title The application of AHP in risk management franchise project financing(PPP) Abstract The PPP(Public-Private partnership)mode is formed in the form of mutual cooperation between government,for-profit businesses and not - for -profit enterprise based on a project,it is mainly used for the development and operation of public infrastructure With the rapid development of China 's economic and social infrastructure construction is increasing,but the lack of the enterprises of our country in this respect , resulting in the formation of China's economic development constraints . PPP financing model of the maturing of the formation of a great impetus to the infrastructure construction.PPP financing model the amount of investment , running a long cycle,a more complex mode of operation,the risk of many kinds of fast changes,it is difficult to control mechanization.How the PPP financing model for successful risk management has become a hot issue of the present study. Risk identification,risk assessment and risk treatment is recognized as the three core components of project risk management,including risk identification part of the theory has a more mature part of risk assessment and risk treatment so far has not been particularly mature mode of operation and methods. Firstly, make the introduction of the research background and significance of the topic;to make a more detailed introduction to the next PPP projects and its research status of risk management,to facilitate readers'understanding of the topic and follow-up article;Finally,based on the PPP project the establishment of AHP model for the risk assessment process and gives an example parse:a mathematical model for the risk assessment process through the PPP projects in terms of the AHP(analytic Hierarchy Process)method,described how more accurate quantification of risk stratification;explains how the numerical simulation method,a more use of risk assessment theory.Project risk management in the future I believe will play a positive role. KEYWORDS：AHP PPP project financing risk management risk assessment (责任编辑：qin) |