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摘要日照是重要的气候因子，日照条件的变化对气候形成有很大的影响。利用西北地区1982-2010年全年平均每天日照时数资料，采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall以及趋势率分析法来分析西北地区(新疆、青海、甘肃、宁夏、陕西五省)在这27年间日照时长的时间、空间变化特征及变化规律。分析结果表明:1)西北地区日照时数随时间的推移在减少，整个西北地区日照时数平均以-4.56h/10a的速度在变化，日照时数突变点发生在1982年;2)而在空间上，西北地区由西向东呈先增加后减少的趋势，而新疆与青海省、甘肃的交界是日照的高值区，新疆西北部、青海陇南及东南部、陕西等地日照时数明显偏低。青海祁连地区、新疆的吐鲁番地区、陕西榆林的日照时数显著减少，而新疆东北-甘南-陇南-宁夏西北地区日照时间没有显著变化。对西北地区日照时数时空变化的研究对于当地的气候变化、农业合理布局、太阳能资源合理规划等有重要意义。40555
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毕业论文关键词：西北地区；日照条件；线性倾向率；Mann-Kendall；趋势率分析
Abstract Sunshine is an important climate factor and changes of the sunshine condition have a great influence on the formation of the climate. Taking advantage of the data of the annual average sunshine hours per day taken down in the northwest area from the year 1982 to the year 2010, the linear tendency rate、Mann-Kendall and trend analysis method are used in the paper to analyze the sunshine duration, the features and regularities of the space change during the 27 years in these areas including Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia and Shanxi province. Two conclusions can be drawn from the result via analysis.one is that the sunshine hours of the northwest areas is decreasing with time at the average speed of 4.56h/10a and the sudden change point takes place in 1982. The other is that the sunshine hours have a tendency to increase firstly and then decrease from the west to the east in the space. The junction among Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu province is the high value area of sunshine while the sunshine hours in the northwest of Xinjiang,the southeast of Qinghai and Longnan Qinghai and Shanxi province is obviously on the low side. The sunshine hours in the Qilian area of Qinghai, the Turpan area of Xinjiang and Yulin Shanxi is decreasing apparently, however, the sunshine hours in the northeast of Xinjiang, the south of Gansu, Longnan and the southwest of Ningxia does not change a little. The study on the sunshine hours and the space and time change of the sunshine in the northwest area is of great significance to the analysis of the climate change in the local areas, the rational distribution of agriculture and the appropriate proposal of the solar energy resources.
Keywords: Northwest China; sunshine condition; linear tendency rate; Mann-Kendall; trend rate analysis
目录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
1 绪 论 1
1.1 概述 1
1.2 国内研究现状 1
1.3 研究意义与目的 2
2 研究数据与方法 3
2.1 研究区概况 3
2.2 数据来源 4
2.3 研究方法 5
2.3.1 线性倾向率法 5
2.3.2 趋势率分析法 6
2.3.3 M-K突变检测法 6
3 研究结果与分析 8
3.1 西北地区年平均日照时长空间变化 8
3.2 西北地区年平均日照时长随时间的变化 11
3.3 西北地区年平均日照时长变化趋势 12
3.3.1 日照时数在空间上变化趋势 12