中国东盟自由贸易区下中国静态贸易效应研究
毕业论文关键词：中国—东盟自由贸易区 贸易创造效应 贸易转移效应
The study of China static trade effects under CAFTA
Abstract:The regional economic integration develops very quickly in the world nowadays. As the Free Trade Area whose population is the biggest in the world, the development of the China and ASEAN Free Trade Area (shorted for CAFTA )is always concerned by all the people in the long time. CFFTA will both make the trade creation effect and the trade persion effect to China and ASEAN countries. The trade creation can make positive effect and the trade persion can make negative effect. If the economic cooperation between China and ASEAN will work, it depends on the general effect of the two trade effect. After the CAFTA set up, many academician has studied the trade effect, but the result is different in different academician’s research result. This thesis will analyze the static trade effect of China after 2005 theoretically and empirically. According to the research result, the trade creation effect is bigger than the trade persion effect, it means the CAFTA is beneficial to the increase of China’s welfare.In the meantime, this article also put up some policy suggestions in the end. I hope that these suggestions can help China solve the problems better when China meets the challenge in the future.
Key words:CAFTA; trade creation effect; trade persion effect
目 录
摘要1
关键词1
Abstract1
Key words1
引言1
一、文献综述2
（一）国外文献综述2
（二）国内文献综述3
二、中国—东盟自由贸易区构建的理论框架与现实基础3
（一）中国—东盟自由贸易区构建的理论框架3
1. 关税同盟理论3
2. 协议性分工理论4
3．产业内贸易理论4
（二）中国—东盟自由贸易区构建的现实基础4
1．双方发展需要及金融危机影响 4
2. 双方贸易结构分析 5
3. 双方比较优势与竞争优势分析5
三、中国—东盟自由贸易区下中国静态贸易效应分析6
（一）根据关税同盟理论分析中国静态贸易效应6
（二）从降低贸易壁垒角度分析中国静态贸易效应6
1．降低关税壁垒的贸易效应7
2．降低非关税壁垒的贸易效应7
3．小结7
（三）通过贸易结合度指数分析中国静态贸易效应8
1．贸易结合度及其与贸易效应的关系8
2．贸易结合度指数的计算及贸易效应分析8
四、基于引力模型的中国静态贸易效应的实证研究9
（一）模型原理9
（二）中国—东盟自由贸易区下中国贸易创造效应实证检验9
1．考察贸易创造效应的引力模型的建立9
2．基于引力模型的实证检验10
（三）中国—东盟自由贸易区下中国贸易转移效应实证检验10
1．考察贸易转移效应的引力模型的建立10
2．基于引力模型的实证检验10