交通基础实施对我国对外贸易增长影响的研究
毕业论文关键词：交通基础实施；对外贸易；单位根检验；协整检验；格兰杰因果关系检验
Traffic Infrastructure for Research on the Effects of China's Foreign Trade Growth
Abstract: Since reform and opening-up, our country foreign trade to realize the leap type development, the rape development of foreign trade depends on the development of advanced traffic infrastructure support. This paper selected the all kinds of traffic patterns between 1978 and 2013 miles of combined two columns of time series data with the total value of import and export trade in our country, Using econometric method, analyzes the traffic infrastructure to our country foreign trade growth mechanism. First, the test of time series stationarity, results show that the two first-order difference stationary time series are presented; Then, through cointegration analysis, found between the traffic infrastructure and the ministry of foreign trade growth, there exists a long-term stable equilibrium relationship; Finally, through the granger causality test, found that the traffic infrastructure and China's foreign trade growth presents a two-way granger causality, it shows that the traffic infrastructure construction will promote China's foreign trade growth, and the ministry of foreign trade growth will provide financial and technical support to the traffic infrastructure and promote its development. At the end of this paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations and outlook.
Key words: The transportation infrastructure; The ministry of foreign trade; Unit root test; Cointegration test; Granger causality test
目 录
摘 要 1
Abstract 2
引言 3
第一章 相关概念、研究框架及理论基础 5
1.1相关概念 5
1.2研究内容与结构框架 6
1.3理论基础 6
第二章 我国交通基础实施与对外贸易增长关系分析 10
2.1本文假设、符号说明及样本数据的来源、选取 10
2.2我国交通基础实施与对外贸易增长的统计性描述 11
2.3我国交通基础实施与对外贸易增长关系的计量分析 13
第三章 结果分析、政策建议及前景展望 16
3.1检验结果分析 16
3.2政策建议 16
3.3前景展望 18
参考文献 19
附录 20
致谢 24
交通基础实施对我国对外贸易增长影响的研究
引言
改革开放，尤其是加入世界贸易组织以来，我国对外贸易实现飞跃式发展，固定资产投资平稳增长，重点项目建设成功推进，交通基础设施网络建设日趋完善。交通基础设施和对外贸易都发展达到了前所未有的水平。截止2013年，货物进出口总额从1978年的355.0亿人民币迅速增长到2013年的258168.9亿人民币，增长了726.3倍；各类运输线路总长度达到878.97万公里，居世界第1位，与1978年的123.51万公里相比，增长了6.2倍。可以说，快速发展的交通基础设施在促进我国对外贸易增长中发挥着重大作用。主要包括铁路、公路、航空、水运、桥梁、隧道、港口等交通运输项目的交通基础设施，是国家投资公共服务系统中的一项重要组成部分。为了适应经济和社会发展以及满足对外贸易经济对基础设施的需求，自1978年开始，我国交通基础设施就实现了非常规增长和跨越式发展。“要想富，先修路”，一个国家交通基础设施的实施与否决定它是否能走出去，从而影响到该国的经济增长和发展速度。
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