摘要本文在对货币政策中介目标进行了相关的理论分析后，认为以货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标，必须对我国货币供应量与产出的长期均衡关系进行检验，以说明其与最终目标的相关性，验证其作为中介目标的可行性。本文使用1990年至2011年的数据对货币供应量与产出之间的长期关系进行协整分析，其结果显示：我国的产出和狭义、广义货币供应量之间都存在协整关系，货币供应量可以作为货币政策中介目标，但以利率作为中介目标的条件还不成熟，需要在利率市场化进程中不断修正其形成机制。所以现阶段仍然要以货币供应量作为主要的货币政策中介目标，可以将利率作为配合目标，当利率市场化改革完成之后，利率作为中介目标的条件可以基本具备。64243

关键词  货币政策中介目标  货币供应量  利率  协整分析

毕业论文 外 文 摘 要

Title  Analysis about the choice whether the money supply or the interest rate should be regarded as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China                      

Abstract After analyzing the related theories about the intermediate target of  monetary policy after，this paper thinks Chinese money supply，as the intermediate target of monetary policy， must be given a long-term equilibrium relationship check with output in China to show its relevance to the ultimate target of monetary policy and to verify its feasibility as an intermediate target of monetary policy. This paper uses annual data from 1990 to 2011 to carry out the co-integrated analysis about the long-term relationship between money supply and output. The results show that there is a co-integrated relation between Chinese output and the narrow money supply，the broad money supply. Therefore，the money supply can be used as the intermediate target. But conditions that the interest rate can be used as the intermediate target are not mature，its formation mechanism needs to be revised during the process of the interest rate marketization. So at this stage the money supply should be regarded as the major intermediate target with the interest rate as auxiliary intermediate target. 

Keywords intermediate target  money supply  interest rate  co-integrated analysis

1  绪论 1

1.1  研究背景 1

1.2  研究思路 1

2  货币政策中介目标的相关理论 3

2.1  货币供应量与货币政策目标概述 4

2.2  利率与货币政策中介目标概述 6

3  模型建构 9

3.1  变量的定义与运用 9

3.2  数据的来源与描述 9

3.3  实证研究的方法和模型 9

3.4  实证研究步骤 10

4  货币供应量与产出之间的相关性分析 12

4.1  普通最小二乘回归分析 12

4.2  变量的单位根检验 14

4.3  残差的单位根检验和协整关系的验证 15

4.4  货币供应量与产出之间的短期关系 17

5  相关的政策建议 22

结   论