我国人口老龄化趋势及其经济效应
毕业论文关键词：人口老龄化；人口结构；老年人抚养比；经济增长;回归分析
China's Aging Population Trend and Its Economic Effect
Abstract：In the 21st century, most countries have the problem of an aging population, although the population aging is the inevitable result of social development, but the emergence of a new social status will bring what kind of impact is also noteworthy. With the aging of the population increasing, analyzes the effect of population aging and the method is particularly important.This article selects 1990 to 2013, the population structure of data, analysis and forecast the trend of population aging, combining with the current social environment and their own knowledge, briefly analyses the reason of influencing aging. Again according to the national economic accounting and population structure, the relationship between per capital GDP, natural growth, urbanization rate and the number of higher education, based on the Eviews software regression analysis, model test and select the optimal model, including multicollinearity test and heteroscedasticity test and autocorrelation test, through the analysis found that per capital GDP and urbanization rate have more influence on the aging of the population, is the conclusion we can policies in this regard, added to the reasonable use of aging, is to get the best economic development.
Key Words：An aging population; Population structure; The elderly dependency ratio; Economic growth; Regression analysis
摘 要 1
引言 3
1.我国人口老龄化的发展状况以及研究意义 5
1.1人口老龄化含义及测度指标 5
1.2我国人口老龄化的发展状况、趋势及特点 5
1.2.1我国人口老龄化现状 5
1.2.2中国老龄化的趋势 7
1.2.3中国老龄化的发展特点 7
1.3 研究老龄化对经济发展影响的意义 9
1.3.1社会发展的客观需求 9
1.3.2有利于完善社会保障体制，有相应对老龄化带来的冲击 9
1.3.3有助于合理利用人力资源，实现人口管理的合理化 9
2.模型理论介绍 9
2.1回归分析 9
2.2经济意义的检验 10
2.3计量经济学检验 10
3.人口老龄化对对社会经济发展影响的模型建立与实证分析 10
3.1 数据来源与模型理论介绍 10
3.3模型检验 12
3.3.1多重共线性检验 12
3.3.2异方差性检验 13
3.3.3自相关性检验 13
3.4模型结果分析 13
4.人口老龄化背景下促进经济发展的建议 14