摘要风机动态分析的依据是实时变化的风速,因此需要对数分钟中以内的短期风速进行研究。本文主要采用的风速模型是将风速分为平均风速和湍流风速。平均风速为定值，因此只需对湍流风速进行短期模拟。文章采用了Weibull分布风速模拟、组合风速模拟、滤波法风速模拟和ARMA模型风速模拟方法进行风速模拟，并仿真了风速的功率谱密度。从模拟的风速和功率谱密度两方面出发，分析四种模拟风速的优缺点。结果表明，使用滤波法和ARMA模拟的风速可以充分反映一定时间尺度内风速变化的统计规律和相关特性，而且其模拟的风速功率谱密度与标准功率谱密度和实际风速功率谱密度吻合都较好。64369

毕业论文关键词  风速数值模拟  Weibull  滤波  ARMA

毕业设计说明书（论文）外文摘要

Title    Analog of fluctuating wind speed for the    wind turbine’s dynamic analysis                                  

Abstract The study of short-term wind speed within a few minutes is necessary, because the wind turbine’s dynamic analysis is based on real-time changes in wind speed. In this paper the main model is that the wind speed is pided into the average wind speed and turbulence wind speed. As the average wind speed is constant in this model, we can just simulate turbulence wind speed. For the wind speed simulation, I take four ways each of which is based on the Weibull distribution，the combined wind speed, filtering and the ARMA model .According to the results of the simulations including the speed simulations and the power spectrum density simulations, we can see that the ways based on filtering and the ARMA model is better, through which the wind speed produced can fully reflect the wind speed changes’ statistical laws and related properties. In addition, their power spectrum density curves are consistent with the standard power spectral density curve and the power spectral density curve of the real wind speed.

Keywords  wind speed numeric simulation, Weibull, filtering, ARMA

1  绪论 1

1.1  研究背景 1

1.2  风速模型建立的意义 2

1.3  风速研究现状 3

2  风速模型 4

2.1  风速模型 5

2.2  平均风速 5

2.3  湍流风速 5

2.4  实际风速 7

3  风速模拟方法 8

3.1  Weibull分布模拟法 8

3.2  组合风速法 11

3.3  滤波法 12

3.4  自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型模拟法 16

4  仿真实现 19

4.1  Weibull风速仿真 19

4.2  组合风速仿真 21

4.3  滤波法风速仿真 24

4.4  ARMA模型风速仿真 26

4.5 风速模拟方法小结 28

结论 31

致谢 32

参考文献