摘要改革开放30多年来，广东省经济持续高速增长，整个经济社会面貌发生了深刻而又深远的变化。2013年是我省全面贯彻落实的十八大和总视察广东重要讲话精神的开局之年,是我省有效应对错综复杂的国内外形势、改革开放和现代化建设取得新进展新成绩的重要一年。然而，高速增长的经济并没有缓解就业压力。就广东省日益严峻的就业市场来看，第一产业就业吸纳能力早已达到极限，第二产业也接近饱和。第三产业是具有解决就业问题潜力的产业。2013年广东省第一产业增加值3047.51亿元,增长2.5%,对GDP增长的贡献率为1.3%;第二产业增加值29427.49亿元,增长7.7%,对GDP增长的贡献率为45.4%;第三产业增加值29688.97亿元,增长9.9%,对GDP增长的贡献率为53.3%。三次产业结构为4.9:47.3:47.8。数据显示，广东省已逐渐从工业大省转为向服务业发展。但我们跟发达国家的第三产业比重相比还有很大一段距离。45341
本文主要从国内外文献关于第三产业促进就业为基础，其中包括配第—拉克拉定理、费景汉—拉尼斯模型、凯恩斯的就业理论等理论和我国历年来就业政策为切入点。运用eviews对三大产业结构进行协整检验，运用stata对第三产业产值和三大产业就业结构建立VAR模型，并进行格兰杰因果检验。分析第三产业在就业问题上的现状和不足，最后通过优化第三产业结构，促进经济发展带动就业。并对第三产业发展提出建议和意见。
毕业论文关键词： 经济发展； 第三产业； 就业吸纳能力
Abstract
30 years of reform and opening up, Guangdong Province, sustained and rapid economic growth, changes the far-reaching economic and social features. 2013 is my province comprehensively implement 18th CPC National Congress and general secretary Xi Jinping visited the Guangdong spirit of the important speech of the start of the year, is a very important year in our province to effectively deal with the complex domestic and international situation, reform and opening up and modernization construction has made new process and new achievements. However, the rapid growth the economy does not relieve the press of employment. Increasingly severe employment market in Guangdong Province in 2013 to increase the value of 30.4优尔 billion, an increase of 2.5%, the contribution to GDP growth rate of 1.3%, The second industry added value of 294.2749 billion, an increase of 7.7%, the contribution to GDP growth rate of 45.4%, The service sector added value of 296.8897 billion, an increase of 9.9%,the contribution to GDP growth rate of 53.3%. The three major industries structure 4.9：47.3：48.7. Data shows, Guangdong Province has been gradually from large province of industry to the development to the service industry.
This article mainly from the domestic and foreign literature on the third industry to promote employment as the foundation, including Petty-Iraq pull theorem, Fei Jinghan Ranis model, Keynes’s employment theory and employment policy in China over the year as the breakthrough point. Analysis of the present situation of the third industries in the employment problems and shortcomings, and finally through the optimization of third industrial structure, promote the economic development of promoting employment. And puts forward some suggestions and opinions on the development of the third industry.
Key words： Economic development；The service sector；Ability to absorb employment
目 录
摘 要 Ⅰ
AbstractⅡ
一、绪论 1
㈠研究的背景和意义 1
㈡本文研究思路和方法 1
二、相关概念和理论 1
㈠产业概念和分类 2
㈡就业概念和分类 2
㈢产业发展与就业结构相关性研究 2
(1)国外就业理论 2 广东省第三产业发展对就业结构的影响:http://www.youerw.com/guanli/lunwen_46728.html