国内市场的人民币贬值因素分析

摘要：2015年8月11日人民币汇率改革以来，人民币与美元的关系具体分为两个阶段，第一阶段从2015年8月11日至2017年5月26日，在这个阶段，总体而言，受人民币贬值预期的影响，人民币贬值的动力大于升值的动力，当美元贬值时，人民币升值幅度有限；当美元升值时，人民币贬值幅度较大。第二阶段从2017年5月26日至今，人民币汇率运行机制中增加了逆周期调节因子，从而稍微改善了人民币汇率的“易贬难升”状态。目前，中国已经出现了两大经济现象：一是人民币汇率稳步上升。尤其是对美元保持小幅上涨；其次，国内的物价水平已经变化成为全面增长，也就是说人民币在国内的购买力越来越低。本文针对中国现有的经济现象，首先根据国内外学者以往的研究成果分析了影响人民币对内贬值的因素，然后通过网络搜集2013年4月—2018年2月所需的各项数据，运用SPSS软件对影响国内市场的人民币贬值的各个因素进行定量分析和检验。通过对相关数据的相关性分析和回归分析以及进行模型修正后建立了相应的线性回归模型。最终得知，外货储备、货币发行量、消费者信心指数以及存款准

备金率是影响国内市场人民币贬值的重要因素。关键词：国内市场的人民币贬值；通货膨胀；SPSS

Analysis of the devaluation of RMB in the domestic market Abstract: Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate on August 11, 2015, the relationship between the RMB and the U.S. dollar has been specifically pided into two phases. The first phase was from August 11, 2015 to May 26, 2017. At this stage, overall, With the expected depreciation of the renminbi, the impetus for devaluation of the renminbi is greater than the power for appreciation. When the dollar depreciates, the appreciation of the renminbi is limited; when the dollar appreciates, the renminbi depreciates to a greater extent. In the second phase, from May 26, 2017 to the present, the counter-cyclical adjustment factor was added to the RMB exchange rate operation mechanism, which slightly improved the “easily exaggerated and difficult to rise” state of the RMB exchange rate. At present, there have been two major economic phenomena in China: First, the RMB exchange rate has steadily increased.

In particular, the United States dollar has remained slightly higher; secondly, domestic prices have changed to full-scale growth, which means that the purchasing power of the renminbi in China is getting lower and lower. This paper aims at China's existing economic phenomenon, first analyzing the factors that affect the RMB devaluation according to the previous research results of domestic and foreign scholars, and then using the network to collect all the data required from April 2013 to February 2018, using SPSS. The software quantitatively analyzes and tests various factors that affect the devaluation of the renminbi in the domestic market. Through the correlation analysis and regression analysis of related data and the revision of the model, a corresponding linear regression model was established. It was finally learned that foreign reserves, currency issuance volume, consumer confidence index and deposit reserve ratio are important factors affecting the devaluation of the renminbi in the domestic market.

Keywords: RMB devaluation in domestic market；inflation ；SPSS

摘要 i

Abstract ii

一、引言 1

1. 课题的目的及意义 1

2. 国内外研究现状与发展趋势 1

二、国内市场的人民币贬值因素分析:http://www.youerw.com/jingji/lunwen_204999.html