摘 要 本文从我国拥有外汇储备的历史及现实情况出发，对 2015年外汇储备下降情况进行了调查，证实了外汇储备的下降程度及趋势。对国家外汇管理局、中国海关总署及中国人民银行等官方机构统计的数据进行了收集和分析，从内部和外部两个视角讨论了外汇储备下降的各方面原因及影响因素。通过分析国际货币基金组织等官方机构提供的数据，从有利和不利两种角度探讨了外汇储备下降可能带来的影响。在分析外汇储备未来趋势时，立足于对外汇储备的作用、管理目标及未来发展方向与前景的思考。从外汇储备本身及人民币国际化进程等方面出发讨论了应对其未来变化的策略。62336
毕业论文关键词：外汇储备；外汇储备下降；汇率变化；人民币国际化
A study of the decline of China’s foreign exchange reserves in 2015
Abstract Beginning with the discussion of the history and reality of the situation of China’s foreign exchange reserves, this article made a research about the fact of the decline of the reserves. Apart from this, by analyzing the data collected from official institutions such as China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's General Administration of Customs and People’s Bank of China, the author discussed several factors that had led to the decrease of China’s foreign exchange reserves internally and externally. Also, through the analysis of the information provided by International Monetary Fund and many other official institutions, the author made a discussion on the influences of the decrease of the reserves. Besides, the author talked about the tendency of China’s foreign exchange reserves in the future by discussing its effects, goals and prospects. Finally, the author made a discussion on the strategies relates to the methods to face the change of China’s foreign exchange reserves in a series of aspects ranging from the management of the reserve assets to the internationalization of RMB.
Keyword: Foreign exchange reserves; The decline of China’s foreign exchange reserves; The change of exchange rate; The internationalization of RMB
目录
1绪论1
1.1选题的目的和意义1
1.3本文研究目标3
1.4研究内容、预计创新点和难点3
1.5研究思路与研究方法3
22015年外汇储备下降情况调查4
2.1我国外汇储备情况介绍4
2.22015年我国外汇储备下降情况.5
3外汇储备的下降原因7
3.1人民币贬值7
3.2银行售汇9
3.3银行注资需要.12
3.4出口量减少.13
3.5资本外流.15
3.6美元升值.18
4外汇储备的下降影响.20
4.1外汇储备下降的有利影响.20
4.2外汇储备下降的不利影响.22
5外汇储备的未来趋势预测.23
5.1从外汇储备作用及管理目标出发.23
5.2从外汇储备发展方向及前景出发.24
6应对外汇储备未来变化的策略分析.25
6.1加强对投机性资本的管理.25
6.2提升出口质量.25
6.3促进外汇储备构成多元化.26
6.4加强对外汇储备投资方向的管理.28
6.5推进人民币国际化进程.29
结论.31
致谢.33
参考文献.34
1 绪论 根据国际货币基金组织定义，外汇储备是一种由货币当局控制的并且可以随时利用的对外资产，主要用于弥补或间接调节国际收支的不平衡，包括货币、银行存款、股本证券、有价证券等形式[1]1。国外资产是我国货币当局资产负债表中与对政府债权及对其他存款行公司债权等共同支撑我国总资产的重要组成部分，据中国人民银行调查统计司 2015年 12月统计的数据显示，我国持有的国外资产约为 25.3 万亿人民币，约占总资产（约为 31.7 万亿人民币）的 80%，其中外汇储备约为 24.9万亿人民币，约占国外资产的 98%。 外汇储备下降情况调查:http://www.youerw.com/jingji/lunwen_68517.html