江苏省居民消费指数统计分析与预测
时间:2019-11-24 21:09 来源:毕业论文 作者:毕业论文 点击:次
| 如果一列有序数据是按照时间的顺序记录的，那么这列数据就叫做时间序列。本文以江苏省 居民消费价格指数的月度数据为研究对象。首先通过 Matlab和 Excel 用 GM(1,1)模型分析并进行拟合。又由于居民消费价格指数具有明显的非平稳性，所以我们建立居民消费价格指数时间序列的相关关系模型并用 R软件对它进行统计分析，研究居民消费价格指数随时间的推移的变化规律，用 ARMA 时间序列模型对其进行预测分析。并与其它省份的居民消费指数进行横向比较，说明江苏省居民消费价格指数所处的水平。本文旨在通过更加深入的居民消费价格指数统计学研究帮助人们更加的了解居民消费价格指数。42037 毕业论文关键词 居民消费价格指数 GM(1,1)模型 时间序列分析 Title Statistical Analysis and prediction of Jiangsu Province Consumer Index Abstract If a list of ordered data is recorded in accordance with the order of the time, the column of data is called time sequence. This paper takes the monthly data of Jiangsu Province consumer price index from April 2013 to March 2016 as the research object. Firstly, we analyze and fitting those data with GM (1, 1) model by Matlab and Excel. Because the consumer price index is not stable obviously, we set up the consumer price index correlation model of time sequence, using R software for statistical analysis, studies the consumer price index changes with the time, with time series ARMA model to forecast analysis, then compared with the other provinces of the consumer index horizontally, described the level of the consumer price index of Jiangsu Province. The purpose of this paper is to through study consumer price index of statistics much more in-depth to help people understand the consumer price index more deeply. Keywords the consumer price index GM (1,1) model time sequence analysis 目录 1 引言1 1.1 研究的背景与意义1 1.3 论文框架及主要研究内容2 2 模型介绍及说明 3 2.1 GM(1，1)模型3 2.2 时间序列模型5 3 居民消费指数的统计分析与预测 12 3.1 数据预处理 12 3.2 数据的均值、方差等特征指标 13 3.3 模型拟合与分析 14 4 与其它省份的居民消费指数进行横向比较 29 结论34 致谢35
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