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摘要20世纪中叶以来，国民经济迅速上升，城市化水平不断发展，人民生活水平不断提高，出现了一系列问题：人口不断增多，城市化用地占用耕地，耕地逐渐减少，导致人地矛盾加深。本文通过对溧水区1952-2008年的城市化水平与耕地面积进行相关性分析、回归分析以及预测展望，研究溧水区城市化进程中城市化水平与耕地面积变化关系。结果得出不同阶段溧水区城市化发展与耕地面积的变化关系：1952-1995年期间溧水区城市化水平发展进程缓慢，耕地面积波动不大。溧水区1995-2003年城市化水平与耕地面积负相关。2003年后溧水区城市化水平与耕地面积呈正相关。结论揭示了城市化发展到一定阶段后，需要占用耕地，导致耕地面积大幅度减少，当城市化水平继续上升到一定程度时，耕地面积反而上升。笔者为实现城市化水平和耕地面积协调发展提出几下建议：政府需要制定地区特色的城市土地利用规划，科学合理的城市规划，重点先发展主城区；健立健全耕地保护政策；城市存量土地资源盘活，走节约集约道路；布局优质高效农业，提高耕地利用率。39149
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毕业论文关键词：城市化水平；耕地面积；回归分析；建议
Study on the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land change-a case study of Nanjing Lishui
Abstract
Since the mid-20th century economy increased rapidly, urbanization development, improvement of people's living standards, there has been a series of problems: population continues to increase, urbanization of land cultivated, arable land decreased, leading to human-land conflict deepened.Based on the 1952-2008 urbanization level and cultivated area in Lishui area correlation, regression analysis and forecast, research on Lishui district relationship between urbanization and cultivated land change in urbanization process.Results obtained for different stages of relationship between urbanization and cultivated land change in Lishui area: 1952-1995 during the slow process of urbanization development in Lishui area, cultivated land movements.Negative correlation between urbanization level and cultivated land area in Lishui district 1995-2003.After 2003 Lishui region urbanization level and cultivated area were positively correlated.Conclusions reveal develops to a certain stage of urbanization, need to loss of arable land, leading to substantial reduction of cultivated land area, when urbanization continued to increase to a certain extent, cultivated rose.Author to achieve coordinated development of urbanization level and cultivated area put forward a few suggestions: Governments need to develop regional characteristics of urban land-use planning, scientific and rational urban planning, focusing on development of main urban areas;Land preservation policy;Inventory of existing urban land resource, take the road of intensive;Layout quality and efficient agriculture and raise land utilization.
Key words: urbanization; Arable land; Regression analysis; Word of advice
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
1 绪 论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究技术路线 2
2.研究区域和研究方法 2
2.1研究区域 2
2.2研究方法 4
3.溧水区城市化水平与耕地面积关系的分析和讨论 4
3.1建国以来溧水区城市化水平和耕地面积的变化 4
3.2城市化水平与耕地面积变化关系的研究 6
3.3溧水区城市化水平和耕地面积的展望 10
4.结论与建议 10
4.1结论 10
4.2实现溧水城市化水平与耕地面积协调统一发展的意见和建议 11