摘要社会在不断进步，越来越快的城镇化将会使更多的耕地流失，耕地是影响社 会经济发展的基本要素，是不可或缺的一部分。为了探索出人口城镇化与耕地的 关系，从而确定人口城镇化对耕地的影响程度，本文以江苏省为例，收集江苏省 统计年鉴 1996 年到 2009 年的相关数据，采用 Eviews 软件建立人口城镇化水平 与耕地面积变化的回归模型的方法，作进一步研究分析并得出结论。结果表明： 人口城镇化水平对耕地面积的影响在 1%以上是显著的，即人口城镇化水平对耕 地变化的影响程度高达 99%以上，随着人口城镇化水平的提高，耕地面积逐渐减 少；但是当城镇化水平提高到一定程度时，经过土地整理、耕地保护等，耕地面 积减少的幅度会有所下降。因此，在借鉴前辈的基础上提出切实可行的建议，保 证政府出具有效政策，择善而从，在我国未来经济发展中，提倡并推进可持续发 展的城镇化，稳定一定量的耕地面积并不断提高耕地的质量。72232

毕业论文关键词：江苏省 人口城镇化 耕地 回归分析 耕地保护

Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and Cultivated Land Change

Abstract In the continuous progress of society, more and more rapid urbanization will make more loss of arable land, arable land is the basic elements of social  and economic development,which is an integral part。In order to explore the relationship between population urbanization and cultivated land, so as to determine the impact of population urbanization on cultivated land。

This paper takes Jiangsu Province as an example,and collects the relevant data from 1996 to 2009 in Jiangsu Province Statistical Yearbook。Eviews software was used to build the regression model of population urbanization level and cultivated land area, and to make further research and analysis。Results show that The influence of population urbanization level on the cultivated land area was remarkable, that is, the influence degree of population urbanization level on the change of cultivated land was more than 99%。With the improvement of the level of population urbanization, the area of cultivated land is decreasing gradually。However, when the level  of urbanization increased to a certain degree,the decline in the area of arable land will decline through the consolidation of land, protection of arable land, etc。 Finally, the government should put forward the feasible suggestion to ensure effective policies issued。In the future economic development of our country, we should advocate and promote the sustainable development of urbanization,and steady a certain amount of cultivated land area and improve the quality of cultivated land。

Key Words:Jiangsu Province population urbanization cultivated land regression analysis cultivated land protection

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

目录 Ⅲ

图清单。 Ⅳ

表清单。 Ⅳ

变量注释表 Ⅳ

1 绪论 1

1。1 研究背景、目的、意义 1

1。2 研究思路与方法 3

2 人口城镇化的基本现状 4

2。1 人口城镇化