摘要我国的粮食生产与粮食安全问题一直受到社会普遍关注。随着人口不断增多，耕地资源非农用现象时有发生，粮食供给问题仍不容小觑。如果不重视这个问题，采取相应的对策进行解决，必然会影响到国家粮食安全、经济安全，进而影响整个社会的建设与进步，因此如何保护耕地成为了研究的热点。72304

在这个背景下，本文通过整理1998-2012年粮食产量、粮食单产、耕地面积变化资料，利用SPSS软件，采用相关性分析法，分析不同时间段耕地面积变化对粮食产量的影响。得出的分析结果如下：在没有控制变量时候，粮食产量与耕地面积的相关系数为0。946、0。977，与粮食单产的相关系数为0。871、0。993；在剔除粮食单产的影响下，偏相关系数分别为1。0、0。984。可见，耕地面积、粮食单产是影响粮食产量的重要因素。由此可以推出,随着时间的推移,粮食单位面积产量、耕地面积变化对粮食总产量的约束作用逐渐弱化，但耕地面积与粮食总产量仍为高度相关。最后，根据结果以及我国耕地资源在利用中存在的一些问题，提出了相应的对策和建议。

该论文有图4幅，表2个，参考文献21篇。

毕业论文关键词：耕地资源  粮食产量  粮食单产  耕地面积 

Analysis on Cultivated Land Area of Change and Food Production Change in Our Country

Abstract： China's food production and food security issues have received a wide range of concern from the society。 With the growth of population, the phenomenon of cultivated land resource being non-agricultural happens from time to time。 Food supply is still a serious problem, which cannot be overlooked。 If we do not attach importance to this problem, and take corresponding countermeasures to solve, this will inevitably affect the national food security and economic security, which will affect the construction and improvement of the whole society。 So how to protect the cultivated land is a hot research。 

At the background, with the correlation analysis method, by using SPSS software, the effect during different periods of time, which the change of arable land has on the food production, through sorting the data of grain production, the yield of grain and the change of cultivated land area in China from 1998 to 2012。 The results of the analysis were as follows: in the absence of control variables, the correlative coefficients between food production and cultivated land area were 0。946, 0。977, and the correlative coefficients between food production the grain yield of were 0。871, 0。993。 In the absence of the influence of grain yield, the correlative coefficients were 1。0, 0。984。 Thus, cultivated land area and yield of grain are important factors that affect grain production。 Accordingly, it can be launched that changes of per unit area yield of grain and the cultivated land area weaken constraint functions on total grain output gradually as time goes on。 However, cultivated land and grain output is highly relevant。

Finally, according to the results of analysis and some problems in the utilization of cultivated land resources in our country, I came up with some corresponding methods and suggestions to solve the current problem。

     The paper has four pictures, two tables and twenty-one references。

Key Words: cultivated land resource  total grain output  yield of grain  cultivated land area

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摘要 I

Abstract II

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