摘要本文所研究对象是我国三大货币政策之一的存款准备金政策。存款准备金政策是中央银行在法律规定下，通过调整商业银行存款规模，进一步改变货币供给量和货币扩张乘数，完成控制金融机构的信贷扩张能力和货币供应量的目的。

本文对我国存款准备金政策的有效性进行实证研究，通过选取2008年至2014年我国商业银行的存款余额、贷款余额、存款准备金规模等，构建了线性回归模型。依次进行了单位根检验、协整检验，并通过误差修正模型得出估计结果，得出了本文的研究结论，我国信贷规模与存款准备金率存在反向变化的关系，即法定存款准备金率上调，则信贷规模收缩；法定存款准备金率下调，信贷规模扩张；商业银行信贷规模与存款规模存在正向关系，即存款规模的增加，则信贷规模的扩张；存款规模的减少，信贷规模的收缩。商业银行拆借资金成本上升，信贷规模收缩；商业银行拆借资金成本下降，信贷规模扩张。最后为增强存款准备金政策的实际作用提出了对策建议，主要包括完善存款准备金政策，采取具有差异性的存款准备金体制；多方面考虑采取多种货币政策措施，完善政策措施调控合力；依托财政政策为基础，充分发挥政策协同效应。51043

毕业论文关键词：法定存款准备金率；有效性；信贷规模 

Empirical Research on Effectiveness of the Policy of Reserve

Abstract

The object of study is one of China's three monetary policy tools of the reserve policy. Reserve policy is the central bank under the law, by adjusting the size of commercial bank deposits, thereby changing the money supply and monetary expansion multiplier, the ability to achieve the credit expansion and money supply control financial institutions purposes.

The validity of the reserve policy of empirical research, by choosing deposits in 2008-2014 China's commercial banks, loans, deposit reserve scale, linear regression model was constructed. Turn the unit root test, co-integration test, and the results obtained by the error correction model estimation, come to conclusions of this study, the presence of the size of credit and deposit reserve ratio varies inversely relationship, that the statutory deposit reserve increase, the size of credit contraction; the statutory deposit reserve rate cut, the size of credit expansion; there is a positive relationship between the size and scale of commercial bank credit deposits, an increase in deposits, the expansion of credit scale; reducing the size of the deposit, the size of credit shrink. ; Commercial bank lending capital costs, shrink the size of credit; commercial bank borrowing cost of funds down credit expansion. Finally, to enhance the effectiveness of the deposit reserve policy put forward suggestions, including improving the deposit reserve policy, the implementation of differentiated reserve system; comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to play a regulatory policy tools together; close coordination of fiscal policy , pay attention to policy synergies.

Key Words: statutory deposit reserve ratio;  effectiveness;   the size of credit 

目  录

摘要-1

Abstract-Ⅱ

目录Ⅲ

一、绪论 1

（一）背景及意义1

（二）研究思路、方法1

（三）研究综述-2

二、存款准备金政策相关理论-3

（一）存款准备金的作用机理-3

（二）存款准备金政策的制约因素-4

三、我国存款准备金政策的运用及其效应6

（一）我国存款准备金率的调整6

（二）流动性过剩条件下我国存款准备金政策执行效果7

四、我国存款准备金政策有效性的实证研究9

（一）数据来源及指标的选取9（二）实证研究过程9