基于VCI指数的江苏省1980-2010年干旱时空变化分析
毕业论文关键词：VCI 江苏省 干旱 时空变化分析
Abstract
Drought disaster occurred frequently in Jiangsu Province during this
years.The drought has introduce huge impact on industry and
agriculture.Monitoring drought changes is very useful.The article is based on
the data of AVHRR during 1980-2010. We calculate the vegetation condition
index ,the mean of vegetation condition index, the Standard Deviation of
vegetation condition index and the slope of vegetation condition index to
analysis the temporal and spatial variation of Jiangsu Province. The analysis
results show us: 1)the major of the drought of Jiangsu Province distributes in
the north of Jiangsu Province .And some of them also distribute in the coastal
areas of Jiangsu Province;2)The extremely arid areas is not common in the
north of Jiangsu Province although there is very arid; 3)The north of Jiangsu
Province has improved much of the condition of drought compared with it of
1980.And the drought seems to want to go the south of Jiangsu Province;4);
5)The government of Jiangsu Province plants many trees in Jiangsu
Province.So the VCI of them rise after 2000;6)There are two big lakes in the
Jiangsu Province named as TAIHU and HONGZEHU.So the VCI around
there is very low.But the VCI of the coastal areas is low than them of other
areas.The reason of the phenomenon is not clear now.
Key words: VCI Jiangsu Province Drought
目 录
摘要Ⅰ
AbstractⅡ
1 引言1
2 材料与方法3
2.1 研究区概况3
2.2 研究数据3
2.3 研究方法4
3 结果与分析6
3.1 江苏省 1980-2010 年干旱情况空间分布6
3.2 江苏省干旱变化趋势率析9
3.3 江苏省干旱变化波动水平10
3.4 江苏省干旱发生频率统计11
4 结论与讨论13
致谢15
参考文献15
1 引言
江苏省位于中国大陆的沿海地区，地处长江和淮河的下游，东部濒临黄海。江苏
省降水量从该省南部到该省北部变化十分巨大，再结合其他自然因素，极容易发生干
旱。 特别是近年来江苏省干旱灾害现象频发， 分别于 1978 年、 1988 年、 1994 年、 2004
年接连发生数次旱灾[1]
，无论是对工农业生产还是对人们的日常生活都产生了巨大的
负面影响，特别是江苏省在2014年发生的旱灾，更是造成了徐州、连云港、宿迁 3
市 12 个县（市、区）475.1 万人受灾；农作物受灾面积356.9 千公顷；直接经济损失
9.7 亿元。干旱灾害已经对人们正常的生产生活产生了巨大的负面影响，因此对江苏
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