摘要近年来我国经济发展速度加快，城市化水平不断提高。经济的发展和城市化的推进导致了城市用地的急速扩张，建设用地需求加大，再加上对土地的不合理和低效益的开发利用，导致了人类活动和土地之间的矛盾。我国的土地资源较为稀缺，因此合理可持续的利用和科学的配置城市土地具有重要意义。模拟城市用地未来的扩张情况有利于对城市土地进行科学合理的利用规划。

结合城市用地扩张的开放性、非线性、不确定性和动态性，本文选择采用ANN-CA模型，以南京市六合区作为研究区域，以2005年和2013年的土地利用矢量数据作为基础数据，基于GeoSOS平台进行城市用地扩张模拟。ANN-CA模型耦合了元胞自动机和人工神经网络，具有元胞自动机“自下而上”的动态演化能力，也能弥补元胞自动机在非线性上的不足。本文根据模拟结果探究南京市六合区城市化进程中土地利用的变化规律，模拟预测其未来的城市用地扩张形态，为城市用地规划工作提供参考依据。51683

该论文有图9幅，表9个，参考文献30篇。

毕业论文关键词：元胞自动机  人工神经网络  ANN-CA  城市用地扩张模拟 

Simulation of Urban Land Expansion Based on ANN-CA Model: A Case Study of Liuhe District, Nanjing City

Abstract

In recent years, China is in a stage of rapid development of economy and urbanization. The development of economy and the advance of urbanization, not only leading to the rapid expansion of urban land, but also leading to the increasing demand of construction land. With the addition of the unreasonable and low benefit of land use, which brings about the contradiction between human and land. China is a country with scarce land resources, in this case, the rational disposition and the sustainable use of urban land becomes especially important. The accurate simulation and prediction of the expansion of urban land in future, is an important basis for determining the land use planning.

In this article, Liuhe district, Nanjing city is selected as the research area to be simulated, and the beginning data of the model is the vector data of land use classes in 2005 and 2013. Because of the expansion of urban land is open, nonlinear, uncertain and dynamic, the simulation is based on GeoSOS and ANN-CA model. The model of cellular automata is dynamic, the artificial neural network is nonlinear. The ANN-CA model which coupled with the cellular automata and the artificial neural network can get a good results of simulation. This article try to find the change rule of land use in the process of urbanization according to the simulation results, and predict the form of urban land expansion in future, provide a reference basis for urban land use plANNing.

Key Words: cellular automata   artificial neural network  ANN-CA   simulation of urban land expansion

目  录

摘  要 I

Abstract II

图清单 IV

表清单 IV

变量注释表 V

1 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景及意义 1

1.2 国内外研究现状 2

1.3 研究目标与内容 3

2 研究方法 4

2.1 元胞自动机 4

2.2 人工神经网络 5

2.3 ANN-CA模型的建立 6

2.4 模型精度验证方法