摘要随着人民生活水平的不断提高，人们对于精神文化的需求日渐增强，重庆作为我国面积最大、人口最多的直辖市，因为其处于东西部经济结合带上的优越的地区条件，已经变成了成为西南地区最大的经济中心。旅游业在重庆已经成为推动经济发展的主要支柱产业之一.本文选取重庆市旅游业的发展进行分析，对它的发展状况和各类影响因素进行研究，总结出其发展的规律.运用时间序列和回归分析的方法通过对数据分析来归纳出重要的影响因素，并对入境游部分进行深入探讨，对于促进支柱产业增长，拉动经济发展有着重要的意义。66701

该论文共有图10幅，表7个，参考文献9篇。

毕业论文关键词：重庆旅游  发展趋势  影响因素  时间序列  回归分析

Tourism Development in Chongqing

 City Statistical Analysis of Social Status and 

Economic Contribution

Abstract

With the continuous improvement of people's living standards, people’s demand for spirits and culture have increased gradually. As China's largest and most populous municipality, because of its superior regional condition between western and eastern economic zone, Chongqing has become the largest economic center in southwestern China. Chongqing tourism has become one of the pillar industries promoting economic development. This paper selects Chongqing tourism to study its development and various factors which influence it, then summed up its development law. We also use time series and regression analysis to analyze the data and summarize the important factors, which is of great significance to promote pillar industry’s growth and stimulate economic development .

Key Words :Chongqing tourism  development trend  factors  time series  analysis of regression

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

目录 Ⅲ

图清单 IV

表清单 IV

变量注释表 V

1绪论 1

1.1背景知识 1

1.2研究现状 1

1.3论文构架 2

2模型数据准备 2

3模型建立与求解 3

3.1时间序列 3

3.2回归分析 7

4结果分析 10

4.1时间序列模型分析结果 10

4.2回归分析模型的分析结果 10

5结论 11

参考文献 12

致谢 13

图清单

图序号 图名称 页码

图3-1 1997-2015年重庆市旅游收入时间序列图

图3-2 1997-2015年重庆市旅游收入一阶差分后时间序列图

图3-3 旅游收入一阶差分后的自相关图

图3-4 旅游收入一阶差分后的偏自相关图