摘要随着现代化进程越来越快，通讯网络的发展也不甘落后，与各项高科技领域的发展齐头并进。许多原有的通信网络系统得到进步和完善，而还有很多新的系统也正在寻求突破。对于一个系统来讲，其运行的可靠性是一个重要的、完整的评价一个系统优劣的性能，通讯网络更是如此，它在通讯网络管理及决策中都发挥着重要的作用。但是因为影响通讯网络的可靠性的原因各式各样，且来源不同，所以网络结构比较复杂多变，使得我们在对通信网络可靠性的研究道路上，出现了更多的阻碍。86525

影响一个系统的因素有很多，这多种因素共同对系统产生作用的结果，决定了系统的总体性能，通讯系统当然也如此。我们通常希望，能够利用系统的各种因素来共同分析系统的性能，但是在诸多的因素中，有些因素是确定的，有些因素却是不明显的，系统整体呈灰色性。通讯系统是一个典型的灰色系统。而多目标决策是决策问题中一类较复杂的，难度较大的问题。于是本文提出一种新型的方法，灰色局势决策法对通讯业务的开发进行多目标决策，相信我们会得到意想不到的惊喜结果。使得我们今后对通信网络可靠性的研究更加简洁明了，其结果能对后续研究产生积极作用。

本文提出的新模型是充分考虑了指标的相对性，模糊性和灰色性，运用灰色关联投影法定量计算,得到通信网络运行可靠性的综合评估值，并依此对通信网络进行排序和优选；采用熵值法客观的确定指标权重，避免了人为主观因素的影响。其次，还在前人的基础之上，创新的以区间指标数为出发点，研究在区间范围内的指标下，如何合理且准确的计算，得出最优排序。本文第一章，将概括地介绍，基于多指标决策通信网络运行可靠性评估模型的学术背景和意义、国内外现状及研究成果、还有本课题的主要研究内容和创新；第二章，将主要介绍本课题研究所需的相关基础知识理论等；第三章将以两个实例论证本课题研究理论原理；第四章为结语以及致谢。

毕业论文关键词：多指标决策；通信网络；运行可靠性；灰色关联

Abstract With the modernization developing faster and faster, the progress of communication network is not least of all, and with the development of various high-tech fields go hand in hand。 Many of the original communication network systems have been improved and improved, but there are still a lot of new systems are seeking a breakthrough。 For a system, its operation reliability is an important and complete evaluation of the quality of a system performance, the network communication as well, it plays an important role in communication network management and decision-making。 Because there are many reasons that influent the communication network reliability, and different sources, so network structure is complex, making us more obstacles in the research on the reliability of communication network of the road。

There are many factors that affect a system, the various factors   affect this system results, which determines the overall performance of the system。 Of course a communication system as well。 We usually want to be able to use various factors together to analyze the system performance, but in a number of factors, some factors are determined and some factors are not obvious, the overall system is grey。 Communication system is a typical grey system。 And the decision problem of multi-objective decision is a more complex difficult problem。 So this paper puts forward a new method, the gray situation decision for multi-objective decision-making communications business development, I believe we will get unexpected results。 In the future, the research on the reliability of the communication network is more concise and clear, and the results can have positive effect on the follow-up studies。