摘要随着世界经济的飞速发展，人类对能源的需求不断加大，能源危机和环境问题的双重压力使得新能源的研究与应用成为热点问题。无污染可再生的风力发电得到了飞速的发展，展现出光明的发展前景。但由于风力具有随机性且难以预测所以风力发电也具有间歇性和随机性，这给电力系统的调度和运行带来了很大的挑战。84126

本文的研究重点是如何解决风电大规模接入下电力系统的潮流计算。首先介绍了国内外关于风电接入下电力系统概率潮流的各种计算方法；然后着重研究了拉丁超立方抽样方法，并在此基础上采用了拉丁超立方重要抽样法，提高了样本的有效性；采用基于拉丁超立方重要抽样法进行概率潮流计算，并通过算例与蒙特卡洛模拟法计算结果对比，验证了该方法的准确性。最后，对风电预测出力概率分布是否规则，网络限值不同的情形做了支路有功上的差异分析。

毕业论文关键词  风力发电  拉丁超立方抽样法  概率潮流 

毕业设计说明书外文摘要

Title Research on probabilistic power flow with the large scale of wind power

Abstract With the rapid development of world’s economy, the demand for energy of human beings is increasing。 The dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental problems make the research and application of new energy become a hot issue。 Nonpolluting and renewable wind power has been rapidly developing, showing a bright prospects。 However, Wind power is also difficult to predict because wind power is intermittent and random, which brings great challenges to the power system scheduling and operation。

This paper focuses on how to solve the calculation and speed up of power load flow of power system with a large scale of wind power。 First of all, this paper introduces a variety of calculation methods of probabilistic power flow in wind power access system at home and abroad; Then the Latin hypercube sampling method is studied, and based on this, the Latin hypercube important sampling method is used to improve the efficiency of the sample; probabilistic power flow problem is calculated  based on the Latin hypercube important sampling method, and the accuracy of the method is verified by an example compared with a Monte-Carlo simulation method。 Whether the wind power forecast output probability distribution is regular or not, and whether the network limit value is different, the difference of branch active power is analyzed。

Keywords Wind power generation, Latin hypercube sampling method, probabilistic power flow, 

目    次

1绪论 1

1。1 研究背景及意义 1

1。2国内外研究现状 2

1。3本文主要研究内容 3

2拉丁超立方重要抽样法研究 4

2。1拉丁超立方抽样法原理 4

2。2拉丁超立方重要抽样法 6

2。3基于拉丁超立方重要抽样的概率潮流计算 7

2。4本章小结 10

3风电预测出力概率分布为非规则的概率潮流计算 11

3。1 非规则概率分布 11

3。2非规则分布抽样 11

3。3风电出力概率分布非规则的概率潮流算例分析 13

3。4本章小结 21

4风电预测出力概率分布为规则和不规则情况下的潮流差异分析