摘要在企业运作上，准确认识、分析并应用产品的售后故障数据，对企业做好产品可靠性评估和优化现有保修期是有十分重要的意义的。并可以同时大幅降低企业在可靠性研究上的支出，较大程度地挖掘产品可以改进的潜力。83278

在本文中通过美的空调厂家KFR-35GW/BP3DN1Y-C型号的售后维修记录，选取不同时段内售出的空调在相同时间节点观察，得出不同基期的空调在观察节点前的损坏数，并以此作为此类型空调的售后故障数据，运用指数分布模型和可靠性评估理论论证了数据处理方法的合理性，通过可靠性评估和可靠性预测，判断企业此类产品的可靠性并得出空调产品的可靠性评估模型。在得出该类空调可靠性评估模型后，构建线性形式保修费用函数为目标函数，企业售后维修成本为约束条件的保修期优化模型。在可靠性模型的基础上，通过评估该类产品的可靠性，结合预测函数，评估当前保修期是否合理，优化设计保修期。

最后，通过故障分布函数得到空调的预计失效数以及实际调研数据，得到新的保修期，相比原来保修期有了一定延长。

毕业论文关键词：售后故障数据；可靠性评估；空调；保修期优化

毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要

Title    Reliability assessment based on air-conditioning sales fault data and warranty period’s estimated Optimization                     

Abstract On the operation of enterprises, accurate understanding and analysis of failure data aftermarket applications, and product reliability for enterprises to evaluate and optimize the existing warranty period it is of great significance。 And can significantly reduce spending on the reliability of the study, a greater degree of mining products may be potential for improvement。

In this paper, mainly in the United States KFR-35GW / BP3DN1Y-C Model Product warranty for three years as an Example。 By year's time, from the United States and the four distribution points (East, South, Central and North) actual research results of all 1000 products。 Sold by different periods of air conditioning at the same end of the summary, come to different groups of the number of air-conditioning in the detection of the damage, and as a sale of this type of air conditioning failure data, reliability evaluation using the theory of exponential distribution model, by reliability evaluation and prediction reliability, the reliability of business judgment and draw such products reliability evaluation model of air conditioning products。 And the number of faults remaining time will be expected。

After that, the cost of building the product warranty repair predictive function as the objective function, a single model Repairs cost constraints warranty Optimization Model。 On the basis of the reliability model, reliability of these products by combining predictive function, to assess the current warranty period is reasonable, optimal design warranty。 Finally, get a new warranty period, relative to the original, with a certain extend。

Keywords  After-sales fault data;Reliability assessment;Air-conditioner;Warranty optimization

目  次

1  引言 1

1。1  研究背景 1

1。2  国内外研究现状 1

1。2。1  可靠性评估 1

1。2。2  保修期优化模型 4

1。3  主要研究内容及技术路线 5

2  空调售后故障数据处理 7

2。1  故障判据界定