我国养老保险对城镇居民消费的影响研究
毕业论文关键词：社会养老保险；城镇居民消费；生命周期理论；回归分析
The research of relationship between Chinese pension insurance and household consumption
Abstract: The reason why urban resident’s consumption level has dropped significantly even though the Chinese economy is sustainably booming at the same time is due to the lack of integrity of the pension insurance system. This problem tends to be more aggressive as Chinese has become a country with ageing populations. Therefore, expanding consumption demand has become the dominant power for the government to re-stimulate domestic productivity as well as the economic development. Nowadays, the major problem that the government facing is the stagnation of household consumption which has potentially affected by the current pension insurance system. It is significant to study the impact of China's endowment insurance on the consumption of urban residents, because social endowment insurance is an important factor affecting the consumption of urban residents This paper constructed an autoregressive model based on Life Cycle Theory，using the number of 2000 to 2014. At last, the article will propose policy suggestions.Key words: Pension Insurance; Urban Residents’ Consumption; Life Cycle Theory; Regression analysis
目 录
摘要1
关键词1
Abstract1
Key words1
一、引言1
（一）研究背景1
（二）研究意义3
（三）研究内容3
二、文献综述3
（一）基于消费模型理论的研究现状分析3
（二）基于倍差分析法的研究现状分析4
（三）基于生命周期理论的研究现状分析4
（四）基于迭代模型理论的研究现状分析4
（五）基于赫克曼干预效应模型的研究现状分析5
三、我国养老保险制度对居民消费影响的实证分析5
（一）数据来源与变量的选择5
（二）描述性统计分析6
（三）模型建立7
（四）模型求解9
（五）结果分析10
四、结论与政策建议10
（一）基本结论10
（二）政策建议11
致谢12
参考文献12
我国养老保险对城镇居民消费的影响研究
一、引言
（一）研究背景
自我D召开十八大后，以为核心的中央先后提出“一带一路”建设、“新常态”、以及“供给侧改革”等重要论述，为新时期我国经济改革和发展明确了目标，指明了方向，为全面建成小康社会，改善我国居民的生活水平、消费水平打下了坚实基础，其实早在21世纪以来，我国就取得了值得骄傲的历史发展成果。可是，客观事实依然存在，容不得我们忽视：我国居民的消费水平整体偏低。2000年我国的居民消费率（居民消费总额占国内生产总值的比例）是47.12%，2015年下降至38.7%。与此同时，世界上其他国家居民消费率大约在60％左右。图1说明我国城镇居民2000-2015年的平均消费倾向总体呈现下降趋势，由2000年的79.59%下降到2015年的68.58%。
1平均消费倾向
注：平均消费倾向＝人均可支配收入／人均消费支出