摘要民间金融是正规金融的补充，部分缓解了实体经济的融资难问题，但是其具有的高风险性质及相关监管体系的不完善也在某种程度上威胁了实体经济的健康发展。本文从理论和实证两个方面分析了民间金融对实体经济的影响。理论部分定性研究了民间金融对实体经济发展的正负两方面作用；实证部分则是基于江苏省及北京市的数据，使用θ值法对江苏省的民间金融规模进行了估算，以及从产业层面测算了江苏省的实体经济，并且对数据做了对数化处理以消除异方差的影响，最后利用eviews软件分析数据，考察了民间金融规模对实体经济的影响效果。研究结果表明，规范民间金融市场、完善民间金融体系对实体经济发展有重要意义。49248

毕业论文关键词：民间金融规模；实体经济；θ值法

A Study on the Influence of Informal Finance on the Development of Real Economy

Abstract

As a supplement to the formal finance, the informal finance eases financing problems in the real economy to a certain extent, but the high risk and imperfect regulatory system are also threats to the healthy development of the formal economy in some degree. In this paper, both theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of the informal finance on the real economy is done. In the theoretical part, researches on positive as well as negative effects of the impact of the informal finance on the real economy development are conducted qualitatively, while the empirical part is based on the data of Jiangsu province and Beijing. The informal financial scale of Jiangsu province is estimated using the method of θ, and the real economy scale of Jiangsu province is computed in the industry level. All data mentioned above are plotted logarithmically in case of the influence of Heteroscedasticity. Finally, eviews is used to analyze data, thus examining the effects of the scale of the informal finance on the real economy. The result indicates that it is important to regulate the informal financial market. Meanwhile, it is also of great significance to improve the private financial system, thus developing the real economy.

Key Words: Informal financial scale  Real economy  θ value method 

目  录

摘要Ⅰ

Abstract-Ⅱ

目录Ⅲ

一、引言- 1

（一）研究目的和意义- 1

（二）研究现状 2

（三）研究的主要内容- 3

二、民间金融概述 -4

（一）民间金融的类型- 4

（二）民间金融的特点- 5

（三）我国民间金融的发展阶段- 5

三、民间金融对实体经济发展影响的理论分析- 6

（一）民间金融对实体经济发展的积极影响 6

（二）民间金融对实体经济发展的消极影响 8

四、民间金融对实体经济发展的影响实证分析- 9

（一）民间金融规模和实体经济的测算 9

（二）实证检验15

（三）研究结果分析17

五、结论、展望与建议 - 17

（一）结论和展望- 17

（二）有效利用民间金融的建议- 18

参考文献-