摘要：上个世纪90年代起，全球爆发了多次金融危机，这与大规模短期国际资本流动有着很大关系。随着我国加入WTO，短期国际资本通过各种渠道大规模的流入和流出我国，一定程度上对我国经济发展和金融市场带来冲击。本文通过了解我国短期国际资本流动现状，深入分析我国短期国际资本流动的影响因素，本人认为国内因素和国际因素对我国短期国际资本流动产生影响。国内因素包括经济增长速度、资本市场收益率以及人民币汇率预期；国际因素包括发达国家的经济走势及货币政策。最后，从响因素研究的角度，提出深化人民币汇率形成机制改革，改革经济发展中自身问题，发展和完善资本市场有针对性政策的意见，使我国更好地应对短期国际资本流动的影响,规避其带来的风险具有指导意义。83606

毕业论文关键词：影响因素；人民币汇率预期； 风险防范

Research on China's Short-Term International Capital Flows and Risk Factors Control

 Abstract: Since the 1990s , the global outbreak of the financial crisis for many times, which has a great relationship with the large-scale short-term international capital flows。 With China's entry into the WTO, the short-term international capital through various channels of large-scale inflows and outflows in our country, to a certain level of China's economic development and financial market impact。 In this article, through understanding the present situation of short-term international capital flows, In depth analysis of the influence factors of China's short-term international capital flows, I believe that the domestic factor and foreign factor impact on China's short-term international capital flows。 The domestic factors consists of the economic growth rate, the capital market rate of return and the RMB exchange rate expectation。 The foreign factors including, economic trend of the developed countries and the monetary policy。 Finally, from the angle of the influencing factors of the proposed,   reform of the RMB exchange rate system, reform of the economic development of their own problem, develop and improve the capital market to make our country a better cope with the effects of the short-term international capital flows, to evade this of risk has a guiding significance。 

Key words: Influencing factors, RMB exchange rate expectation, Risk-prevention

目    录

摘  要 1

Abstract 1

一、我国短期国际资本流动现状 2

（一）短期国际资本呈阶段性波动 2

（二）金融机构外汇占款锐减 3

（三）外商直接投资减少 4

二、我国短期国际资本流动的影响因素 5

    （一）国内影响因素 5

（二）国际影响因素 7

三、短期国际资本流动对我国的不利影响 8

   （一）短期国际资本流动对国际收支的影响 8

   （二）短期国际资本流动对汇率的影响 10

   （三）短期国际资本流动对资本市场的影响 10

四、我国短期国际资本流动的风险应对措施 10

   （一）深化人民币汇率形成机制改革 11

   （二）改革经济发展中的问题